Bitcoin is once again flirting with a key psychological area: $119,000. With renewed investor interest and volatility making a comeback, the question arises: mere flash in the pan, or the beginning of a massive bullish cycle ? We analyze technical signals and on-chain flows to decode the situation.
Bitcoin’s macro heat indicator has stabilized at 44%, reflecting a neutral market zone where neither bulls nor bears dominate. This value suggests the market sits between overheating and undervaluation, translating to notable hesitation among key players.
Currently, Bitcoin trades around $118,000, absorbing modest ETF inflows and recent profit-taking. Without strong directional conviction, price movement suggests either an upcoming bullish breakout or deeper consolidation ahead.
Following the distribution of 80,000 BTC by Galaxy Digital, the net realized profit/loss climbed to $3.2 billion before sharply dropping to $1.4 billion. This decline indicates the market is beginning to digest incoming supply without triggering a major price correction. However, profit-taking remains elevated. While aggressive selling has decreased, current levels still warrant caution. Bitcoin has not yet entered a clean accumulation phase.
Over the past 7 days, outflows from large holders have exploded by 178.67%, while inflows have increased by only 70.22%. This imbalance shows more BTC leaving whale wallets than entering them, often a prelude to distribution. Outflows exceeding inflows suggest certain large entities are reducing their exposure or strategically redistributing their assets.
Technically, Bitcoin remains in an ascending channel, trading around $118,200. This is just below the key resistance of $119,900 and the upper Bollinger Band. Support was near $116,400, cushioning potential short-term declines. However, the RSI has begun to reverse from 63, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
In conclusion, Bitcoin finds itself in a delicate balance, with macroeconomic conditions neither strongly bullish nor bearish. Growing caution among large holders, elevated profit-taking, and dominant selling pressure hint at a possible pullback. If these trends persist, Bitcoin could retest lower support levels before a fresh push toward resistance might materialize in the short term.
Passionate about the crypto world, he explores the blockchain ecosystem to extract the most essential insights. With his expertise in SEO and web writing, he transforms news and technical analysis into clear, engaging, and impactful content. His goal? To help investors better understand the opportunities and challenges of the crypto market.
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