Bitcoin dips amidst US-Iran tensions: Oil surges – Market analysis

The immediate impact of the US-Iran conflict on crypto

Financial markets had a rough awakening this Monday. The military escalation over the weekend triggered an immediate shockwave: oil prices surged 6% to reach $77, while Asian stocks dropped 1.4%. In this climate of geopolitical uncertainty, investors are massively turning away from risk assets, and the crypto market is not spared.

Bitcoin (BTC), often dubbed digital gold, did not play its safe-haven role in the immediate term. It faced selling pressure, dropping to the $66,700 threshold. This retracement movement is classic during sudden geopolitical shocks: liquidity is drained toward the dollar or physical gold, leaving volatile assets like cryptocurrencies exposed to rapid correction.

Altcoins are not left behind and are experiencing even steeper losses. Solana (SOL) is sliding dangerously toward $84, while XRP is trying to maintain its support around $1.36. The mood is clearly bearish in the short term, with traders waiting to see if the Middle East situation stabilizes or worsens.

Technical Analysis: Is the $66,000 support solid?

From a technical perspective, losing the psychological level of $68,000 is a warning signal. Bitcoin is currently testing a critical support zone around $66,500 – $66,700. If this level gives way on a daily close, the door would be open for bearish acceleration toward the next major liquidity zone. For now, Bitcoin shows a 2H order block that can support the price in the coming days, between $64,200 and $65,400. If this new level gives way, a return below $60,000 is almost certain.

Momentum indicators like the RSI are beginning to show oversold signs on shorter timeframes (H4), which could suggest an imminent technical bounce. However, as long as the price remains below the resistance at $70,000, the bears maintain control. A failure to quickly reclaim this level would validate a deeper reversal structure.

Bitcoin at $66,000: Golden opportunity or bearish trap?

The inverse correlation between oil and Bitcoin is glaring here. As energy soars, available liquidity for digital assets becomes scarce. For long-term investors, this type of dip caused by exogenous events (unrelated to crypto fundamentals) has historically often represented a strategic buying opportunity.

Nevertheless, caution is warranted. If the conflict drags on and oil continues its run toward $80 or higher, inflation could resurface, forcing central banks to tighten their stance, which would be detrimental to crypto.

For now, Bitcoin seems to be forming a “contracting triangle” at the Elliott wave level and a drop to $53,000 in the coming weeks appears to be the most likely scenario, especially in this type of climate.

The market is at a crossroads: can Bitcoin defend its supports and prove its resilience against geopolitical chaos, or will we revisit $60,000 before the next bullish leg?

Related Articles:

• Bitcoin plunges to $65k: Decoding the crypto market crash
• Trump Media accuses Jane Street of market manipulation: What’s happening?
• MARA Bitcoin miner soars 15% after AI pivot: Should you invest?