A Return to Reality After the 2024 Euphoria ?
As Asian stock markets open this Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) remains firmly anchored above $105,000. This represents a slight correction from the $107,000 reached the previous day in the United States, but it does nothing to diminish the resilience displayed by the world’s leading cryptocurrency in recent weeks. In fact, BTC bounced back to more than $106,800 this morning.
Despite geopolitical upheavals—including the US strike in Iran—BTC has once again demonstrated its ability to establish itself as a safe-haven asset. According to market data, the asset recorded a 2% increase over the past month.
But this upward movement, which is dangerously approaching the previous record of $111,000 established last May, seems to be happening with more restraint than exuberance. Unlike the breaking of the $100,000 barrier in December 2024, which triggered a wave of profit-taking, long-term investors now appear determined to hold onto their gains.
As Glassnode analysts highlight in their latest weekly report, “HODLing” seems to be becoming the dominant market mechanic. This is evidenced by the increase in the volume of unspent BTC to 14.7 million tokens, as well as historically low realized profits.
Indicators such as the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) also reflect this restraint, maintaining just above the break-even threshold. This situation suggests that the coins in movement correspond more to tactical operations than to widespread distribution.
Institutional Demand Shows No Signs of Weakening
This patience from long-term holders echoes persistent institutional demand. According to market data, net flows to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reached $2.2 billion last week. This appetite shows no signs of weakening, with players like Strategy and Metaplanet continuing to accumulate.
These regular inflows are gently reshaping the market structure, as evidenced by the growth of Bitcoin’s realized cap, an indicator measuring the price at which coins were last exchanged. This signals that “real” capital, not just speculative money, is flowing into the asset.
But beneath this apparent serenity, warning signals are not lacking. Glassnode observes an increase in leveraged long positions, with funding rates turning positive again on the main perpetual futures markets. Indeed, the dominance of short liquidations may indicate that a local top has been reached.
According to analysts, this situation could well destabilize the fragile balance between the conviction of long-term holders and the appetite of short-term traders. This suggests a possible upcoming phase of high volatility for Bitcoin.
As the market seems to oscillate between caution and impatience, the question of the next catalyst remains unresolved. Will it be able to trigger the next explosive movement for Bitcoin ? The answer could well shake things up in the coming months.
