Bitcoin closes the year in uncertainty after a disappointing fourth quarter. Analysts are divided between a technical rebound towards $100,000 and a major correction potentially pushing BTC below $70,000. With macroeconomic forces impacting the market, what trajectory will prevail in the short and medium term?
The current bearish pressure on Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily signal an imminent collapse. Analyst Monsieur Wall Street points out that available sell-side liquidity remains insufficient to support a brutal drop. This technical configuration opens the door to a relief movement that could propel BTC between $98,000 and $104,000 in the coming weeks.
This scenario is based on identifying major liquidity pockets and unfilled Fair Value Gaps in this price zone. These levels act as magnets for price action in a context of high volatility. However, the analyst warns that this rebound would likely constitute a bull trap rather than the beginning of a new major impulse.
This is indeed a scenario anticipated by the best traders currently, such as DrProfit and Killa. Nevertheless, they also announce “a chop,” a period of sideways movement for several more weeks before another drop after March.
The bearish consensus for 2025 is strengthening among many seasoned analysts. Lark Davis believes that Bitcoin has already reached its cyclical peak at $126,000, marking both a price top and a temporal high point according to historical cycles. This view finds resonance in Fidelity’s analysis, which identifies 2025 as a year of bearish consolidation.
Monsieur Wall Street anticipates a test of the $64,000-$70,000 range by the end of the first quarter or early second quarter 2025. This zone corresponds to robust technical support levels that have historically attracted institutional buyers. Nevertheless, he warns that this correction may not represent the final cycle bottom, but rather a first significant readjustment.
The macroeconomic environment reinforces this cautious scenario. Options data analyzed by Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital reveals extreme uncertainty: the market assigns almost equal probabilities to Bitcoin at $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of 2026. This unusual dispersion of expectations reflects the prevailing confusion rather than clear conviction.
Beyond the expected turbulence in 2025, Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain solid. Alex Thorn maintains a projection of $250,000 by the end of 2027, driven by decreasing volatility and accelerating institutional adoption. BTC is gradually evolving toward a mature macroeconomic asset, less sensitive to pure speculative movements.
Analyst Sykodelic reinforces this thesis by comparing Bitcoin to global liquidity and gold. According to his models, the current fair value would be around $153,000, which suggests significant revaluation potential once price converges toward its long-term historical averages. This fundamental approach offers a reassuring contrast to short-term volatility.
The MTC-Rainbow cloud analysis suggests a rebound to $100,000 followed by a drop to $57,000. In any case, it will be necessary to monitor whether Bitcoin approaches $98,000-$104,000 and expect a violent bearish reversal.
Related articles:
Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it is important not to invest more than you can afford to lose.
InvestX is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and cannot be held liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused by the use of any product or service featured in this article. Investments in crypto assets are inherently risky; readers should conduct their own research before taking any action and invest only within their financial means. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Risk Warning : Trading financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, including the possibility of losing all or part of your investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can be influenced by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Margin trading increases financial risks.
CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are complex instruments with a high risk of rapid capital loss due to leverage. Between 74% and 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should assess whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Before engaging in financial or cryptocurrency trading, you must be fully informed about the associated risks and fees, carefully evaluate your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance, and seek professional advice if needed. InvestX.fr and the InvestX application may provide general market commentary, which does not constitute investment advice and should not be interpreted as such. Please consult an independent financial advisor for any investment-related questions. InvestX.fr disclaims any liability for errors, misinvestments, inaccuracies, or omissions and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information, texts, graphics, links, or other materials provided.
Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.
