Bitcoin technical analysis: Where will BTC go in the coming weeks?

Why This 12,000 BTC Injection Is Worrying the Markets

Volatility is back, and not in the way investors were hoping. After a period of relative calm, the crypto market is facing a brutal awakening of whales. According to data reported by CryptoQuant, a massive spike of 12,000 BTC was recorded in inflows to exchange platforms on February 6th.

Why is this critical? In trading jargon, a massive exchange inflow generally indicates that large wallets are moving their holdings from cold wallets to exchanges to sell them or use them as collateral in derivatives markets. This is a classic bearish signal.

This movement comes in an already fragile context:

• Bitcoin has dropped from its local peak of $95,000 to touch the $60,000 zone.
• The monthly average of inflows has increased from 1,000 BTC to nearly 3,000 BTC, a sign that distribution is accelerating.
• Since February 1st, seven days have recorded flows exceeding 5,000 BTC, an unusual frequency that reflects growing nervousness among large holders.

Technical Analysis: Is the Key Support in Danger?

From a chart perspective, Bitcoin’s situation is precarious. Currently, BTC is trading in a zone between $66,000 and $67,000, struggling to validate a convincing rebound.

Indicators Are Turning Red

Technical analysis reveals short-term structural weakness. The price is trading well below its 20-day Moving Average (MA), located around $77,000. This level now acts as major dynamic resistance: as long as the price remains below, the underlying trend remains bearish.

Additionally, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator sits below the 40 mark. This indicates that momentum is clearly in the hands of sellers (bears), without yet being in extreme oversold territory, which potentially leaves room for further decline.

Levels to Watch Closely

• Critical Support: $60,000. This is the last line of defense. A clean breakdown of this level could trigger a cascade of liquidations.
• Intermediate Resistance: $69,000. A return above this 1H order block would be a first sign of stabilization.
• Major Resistance: $77,000-$80,000. Only a close above this 20-day MA would invalidate the current corrective scenario.

Can Bitcoin Avoid a Crash Toward $50,000?

The rise in volatility, confirmed by Alphractal data, suggests the market is preparing for a violent move. Historically, when volatility remains low for weeks before exploding, the subsequent movement is often aggressive.

Two scenarios are emerging for the coming days:

• Bearish Scenario (Likely): If whale selling pressure materializes on the order book, the $60,000 support will be tested again. The weakness of the current rebound suggests buyers lack conviction. A drop below this support would open the door to exploring lower zones, potentially toward $52,000.
• Bullish Scenario (Hope): If the 12,000 BTC are not sold immediately but used to manipulate sentiment (spoofing), and the price manages to reclaim $70,000, we could witness a short squeeze. This would force short sellers to buy back their positions, propelling the price toward the $77,000 resistance.

The current situation demands caution. The massive influx of BTC to exchanges is a sword of Damocles hanging over the price. For traders, current volatility offers opportunities, but the risk of cascading liquidations is at its maximum.

Related Articles:

• Can Dogecoin spark a Memecoin supercycle in 2026?
• XRP ETFs soar: Is this the start of a new Bull Run?
• Elon Musk to launch X money in 2 months: Will it ignite the crypto market?