Bitcoin (BTC) is defying expectations with strong fundamentals and increasing demand. Is it gearing up for a bullish run in 2025 ? A detailed analysis of macroeconomic outlook and risks awaits.
According to analysts at 21Shares, the current momentum of Bitcoin is fueled by a favorable structural imbalance, with decreasing supply and increasing demand. This context makes a prolonged correction in the cryptocurrency’s price unlikely in the coming months.
Crypto analyst at 21Shares, Matt Mena, highlights that the amount of Bitcoin held on exchange platforms and over-the-counter (OTC) desks is at a historically low level. Meanwhile, demand for the cryptocurrency continues to rise, particularly with the arrival of new “price-insensitive” investors.
“There are currently many more positives than negatives for Bitcoin,” explains Mena. According to him, Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States have already absorbed several times the amount of BTC that will be mined this year, not counting discreet corporate purchases.
Nevertheless, derivative markets still contribute the most in terms of volume for BTC. They represent $94 million in volume compared to $6 and $7 billion for ETFs and spot volumes.
This rise in derivative products confirms the renewed interest and appetite for risk. However, these spikes also signal short-term volatility.
Although the outlook is favorable, Mena warns against two macroeconomic risk factors that could weigh on the market: potential new tariff increases proposed by Trump, as well as decisions by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates.
“If there is tighter monetary policy than expected, we could see a general decline in risk assets, including Bitcoin,” emphasizes the analyst.
However, 21Shares believes that a prolonged correction in Bitcoin’s price over the next six months is unlikely. “Once summer is over and liquidity returns, we expect the bullish momentum to resume,” anticipates Mena.
Remarkably, Bitcoin is establishing new all-time highs despite the typically unfavorable seasonality of the third quarter. This resilience demonstrates the strength of the cryptocurrency’s fundamentals.
Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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