BTC : Market Trends and Positive Expectations
Although Bitcoin has already gained 5% in September, defying its usual seasonal weakness, analysts remain confident in the asset’s ability to generate high returns in October. Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, identifies several factors that could propel a new “Uptober” for BTC.
First, the recent ADP report showed an unexpected decline of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in September. This “downside surprise” strengthens expectations for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29, with a 99% probability according to the CME FedWatch tracking tool.
“As liquidity expectations increase, BTC tends to outperform,” explains Mena, “benefiting both as a digital safe haven and a high-beta risk asset when liquidity returns.”
Indeed, Bitcoin has already gained nearly $10,000 this week, rising from $108,000 to approximately $118,000 despite $2 billion in long position liquidations last week. Overall, the asset shows a 26% increase since the beginning of the year.
Outlook and Risks
Beyond October, the fourth quarter is historically the most favorable period for Bitcoin. This trend was reinforced by the approval of a Bitcoin ETF in 2023 and Trump’s electoral victory last year.
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, predicts that BTC, ETH, and SOL will reach new highs in Q4, provided the Senate makes progress on market regulation and macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. However, he also warns about the risk of more aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed, which could weaken asset valuations.
Despite fluctuations, investors will soon have more tools to navigate this evolving crypto ecosystem. The current bullish momentum and October’s historical trends suggest an explosive “Uptober” for Bitcoin. Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term upside potential, while emphasizing the importance of closely monitoring monetary policy developments.
