The crypto market is on fire, with the burning question being: how long will this bull run last? Analysts predict a peak as early as October 2025, while others foresee an extension until 2026, driven by monetary policies and historical cycles. Unraveling the potential scenarios and strategies to navigate this volatile landscape.
Jerome Powell rescued the crypto markets during his annual speech at Jackson Hole, confirming that “current conditions could warrant interest rate cuts”. This statement, though conditional, was enough to send markets soaring after a week of uncertainty.
The probability of rate cuts had dropped by more than 30% in the previous week, creating palpable tension across markets. Polymarket now shows a 78% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, while the CME indicates a 75% probability.
Ethereum reacted immediately by touching new ATHs, albeit briefly. The market now awaits confirmation with closures above $5,000. Without this rate cut signal, the scenario would have been catastrophic for cryptocurrencies.
Analysis of historical fractals strengthens the probability of a market top by October 2025. Two distinct models converge toward this same period, which is never coincidental.
The “halving to top” model shows that Bitcoin typically reaches its peak 17 to 18 months after each halving. With the last halving occurring on April 15, 2024, this projects a likely peak around October 2025.
The “bottom to top” model starts from the low point of the previous cycle. The last two cycles reached their peak exactly 35 months after their bottom. Starting from November 2022, we again arrive at October 2025.
“This convergence of fractals suggests that crypto cycles follow recurring temporal patterns linked to monetary conditions and market psychology.”
A scenario extending into 2026 remains possible. Unlike previous cycles, we’re not yet in the “open bar” phase of massive liquidity. The Fed maintains rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, and even with a 25 basis point cut, we won’t be in accommodative conditions. This threshold historically sits around 2.5%.
The massive quantitative easing that propelled Bitcoin’s greatest rises in the past hasn’t even begun yet. If the Fed drops below 2.5% with massive liquidity injections, we would have an explosive cocktail for crypto.
Psychological management becomes crucial in the face of these temporal uncertainties. Selling with a nice profit only to watch the market explode afterward can be mentally devastating. The “moon bag” strategy offers an elegant solution: sell 95% of a position while keeping 5% as a psychological crutch. If the token goes 10x in the following months, that 5% will benefit from the unexpected rise.
The goal remains to exit progressively by the end of October according to the base scenario, but this strategy allows you to adapt to all scenarios without major regrets. In such an unpredictable market, psychological flexibility is often worth more than absolute temporal precision.
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