Futures contracts on Binance, a key indicator of speculation, are experiencing a significant drop in trading volumes. This slowdown raises questions among investors: is it a pause before a new surge or a worrying alarm signal for Bitcoin's future?
Despite growing expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States, Bitcoin has failed to register a significant price increase. On the contrary, there’s been a notable decrease in trading volume of futures contracts on the Binance Futures platform, which analysts consider a potential “warning signal.”
In a report published Monday, CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet emphasized that a significant drop in futures contract volume is a concerning sign. He explained that during the recent bullish trend, a positive divergence in the buy/sell ratio on the Binance futures market often indicated that the price was stabilizing or entering consolidation.
High purchase volume in the futures market reflects that many investors and substantial capital are betting on price increases. However, recently, the atmosphere seems to have changed. Mignolet believes the current situation strongly resembles what was observed during the market peak in 2021. He therefore suggests that, given the strong price progression, traders should focus more on actual trading volume rather than simple bullish/bearish ratios.
Analyzing the charts, we can see that Bitcoin price increases since 2020 have often coincided with an increase in the purchase volume of futures contracts on Binance. But this time, the situation is different. Although Bitcoin’s price is reaching new all-time highs, the purchase volume of futures contracts isn’t keeping pace. Mignolet noted that this divergence strongly resembles the market peak of 2021.
Although ETFs and MicroStrategy (MSTR) are boosting market liquidity in the spot market, the futures market remains centered on Binance. According to Mignolet, a strong Bitcoin rally will be difficult to achieve without a rebound in volume in this market.
Mignolet refrained from declaring the end of the current bullish trend. “The problem is that liquidity is decreasing globally,” he stated, adding that “if trading volume recovers, the market may not have reached its peak yet.”
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