Bitcoin Just Flashed a Rare Capitulation Signal
Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 after its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 30 in mid-November. This threshold traditionally marks an extreme capitulation zone where sellers exhaust their pressure. Julien Bittel of Global Macro Investor shared a particularly insightful chart: he overlays Bitcoin’s recent trajectory with the average of the last five times the RSI crossed this critical level. The result? A mathematical projection pointing toward $180,000 approximately 90 days after the oversold reading.
Bear in mind, however, that this $180,000 target represents a gain of approximately 105% in three months, equivalent to a daily compounded return of 0.80%. This chart constitutes an event study average, not a distribution of forecasts. It therefore potentially masks significant variations in historical trajectories.
Does the Four-Year Cycle Still Hold Up Under Analysis?
Price action since October keeps the cyclical argument alive. Bitcoin peaked at $126,223 in October before plunging through late November. The November 21 low near $80,697 represents a correction of approximately 36% from the top, a decline that fits perfectly within the 35% to 55% retracement range identified in the post-halving timing model.
The $106,400 level stands out as a crucial regime pivot. BTC remained stuck below this threshold for weeks until mid-December. To validate the trajectory toward $180,000, sustained acceptance above this pivot becomes virtually indispensable. Without it, the market risks remaining trapped in a simple momentum bounce within a corrective range, rather than initiating a new bullish leg.
Bittel’s theory that the “four-year cycle is dead” rests on macroeconomic mechanisms rather than halving calendars. He connects cyclical timing to the dynamics of U.S. public debt refinancing and interest payments that now exceed $1 trillion annually. These macro factors could redefine Bitcoin’s liquidity drivers.
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