ETH/BTC Near a Cycle Bottom? CryptoQuant Spots Key Signals But Stays Cautious

The ETH/BTC pair is drawing growing attention from on-chain analysts. After months of Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin, a number of indicators are starting to flash green — though none have yet confirmed a definitive trend reversal.

CryptoQuant has published a detailed analysis highlighting several metrics that point to a possible market floor for Ether. Selling pressure is easing, demand is gradually recovering, but the ultimate confirmation signal is still missing.

Here is a breakdown of the data currently sparking debate across the crypto community.

Ethereum Below Its Realized Price: Historically Favorable Territory for Buyers

One of the most closely watched signals in CryptoQuant‘s analysis is where ETH stands relative to its realized price — the average value at which each token was acquired on-chain. Currently, Ether is trading below that level, meaning the majority of holders are sitting on unrealized losses.

Historically, this configuration has coincided with capitulation zones and, in certain cycles, with favorable medium-term entry points. It is not a guarantee of an immediate rebound, but it does signal that sellers have already largely liquidated their positions — mechanically reducing the remaining downside pressure.

On the ETH/BTC pair specifically, the dynamic is even more pronounced. Ethereum has been losing ground against Bitcoin continuously since the 2021 peak, and the ratio is now trading at levels not seen in several years. For traders tracking altcoin cycles, this kind of extreme compression often precedes — though not always — a catch-up phase.

On-Chain Metrics Point to Stabilization, Not Yet a Recovery

Beyond the realized price, CryptoQuant identifies several on-chain indicators converging in the same direction: selling pressure is easing and demand is beginning to rebuild gradually. Among the signals being monitored are a decline in exchange outflows — suggesting holders are less inclined to sell — alongside a modest uptick in active addresses.

These data points are encouraging, but CryptoQuant stresses a crucial caveat: no definitive confirmation signal has emerged yet. In previous cycles, the true bottom typically materialized through a combination of violent capitulation followed by a sharp demand reversal. That sequence has not yet played out for ETH/BTC.

The market therefore remains in a zone of ambiguity. Opportunistic buyers may see this as a window for gradual accumulation, while more cautious traders are waiting for technical confirmation in price action — specifically a clear reversal of the ETH/BTC ratio on weekly or monthly timeframes, backed by significant volume.

Why the ETH/BTC Ratio Commands So Much Analyst Attention

The ETH/BTC pair is widely regarded as a barometer for overall altcoin sentiment. When Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin, it is generally a sign that the market is in risk-on mode and that capital is rotating into more speculative assets. Conversely, a prolonged period of ETH underperformance reflects a clear preference for the relative safety of BTC.

In this context, the fact that CryptoQuant is beginning to detect stabilization signals on this ratio carries real weight. It does not foreshadow an immediate bull run for Ethereum, but it does suggest that the phase of relative value destruction may be nearing its end. Potential catalysts remain plentiful: growing adoption of staking, continued development of the Layer 2 ecosystem, and renewed institutional interest through Ethereum ETFs in the United States.

For investors tracking long-term cycles, caution remains warranted. A cycle bottom can only be confirmed in hindsight — and on-chain data, as valuable as it is, cannot substitute for a clear confirmation in price action on the open market.