Maximum Pain for Bitcoin and Ethereum
This Thursday, the crypto sphere’s attention turns to a critical deadline : the expiration of $23 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options, scheduled for tomorrow, Friday.
This exceptional volume far exceeds previous records, such as the $8.05 billion in April 2025 or $6 billion in September 2024. With a “max pain” level estimated between $107,000 and $110,000 for BTC, this expiration could redefine price dynamics, fueling speculation about a major crash. But is this really the most likely scenario ? Let’s analyze the facts.
“Max pain” – the price level where the greatest number of options expire worthless, maximizing losses for holders – is a key indicator.
Indeed, at $110,000-107,000 for BTC (currently at $112,600) and about $3,800-3,900 for ETH (currently $4,192), this equilibrium point could force a correction if market makers adjust their positions.
Historically, massive expirations amplify volatility. In April 2025, the $8.05 billion in BTC/ETH options triggered a 5% swing on BTC (from $92,000 to $87,000), liquidating $300 million in long positions, according to CryptoQuant.
With $23 billion – three times more – the impact could be exponential. On-chain data shows 60,000 BTC withdrawn from exchanges recently, signaling accumulation by whales, but also tension : the open interest in derivatives has climbed from $38 to $39 billion post-liquidations, with 60% of vulnerable long positions. If these positions face mass liquidation around the max pain level, a crash of 10-15% (to $95,000 for BTC, $3,200 for ETH) is plausible.
However, not all signs point to a collapse. The $23 billion includes bullish strikes up to $110,000 for BTC and $4,500 for ETH, reflecting long-term bullish sentiment.
BTC ETF inflows ($700 million this week) and institutional demand via Coinbase Premium support potential absorption. On X, @MutantDogsYC even predicts an imminent target of $115,000, suggesting the market might defy max pain. Scenarios vary : a crash if shorts dominate, or consolidation if bulls absorb liquidations.
The Biggest Crash Ever Seen ?
A 10% crash for BTC, but especially a 30% drop for ETH to $2,800 would be a severe blow to the market. With $23 billion in options, liquidations could reach $2-3 billion, amplified by a domino effect on margins (CME Group). However, current liquidity ($4.2 trillion crypto market cap) and reserves from players like Tether (110 billion USDT) could cushion the shock.
In summary, if max pain takes effect, BTC could test $105,000, ETH $2,300. A post-expiration bounce toward $115,000 (BTC) and $4,200 (ETH) is possible if bulls regain control. For the long term, BTC at $150,000 and ETH at $5,000 remain probable, despite the turbulence.
In conclusion, the $23 billion in options does not guarantee the “biggest crash ever,” but a violent movement of 10-15% is likely on Friday for altcoins.
How to Profit from This Panic ?
Buying with DCA during the next few days may prove to be the best strategy before entering October, historically the most profitable month for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Here are the steps for a classic spot purchase on Bitget, suitable for beginners, without needing advanced trading knowledge :
1- Create a Bitget account : Visit the Bitget website or download the app. Register with your email or phone number, then complete KYC verification (ID document, 5-10 minutes). This is mandatory for deposits >€1,000 and ensures European compliance.
2- Deposit funds :
- Bank card : Add via Visa/Mastercard (1-2% fees, instant). Example: €100.
- SEPA transfer : Free, but takes 1-2 days (ideal for larger amounts).
- Crypto : Transfer USDT from another wallet (fast, fee-free if on-chain).
- Funds arrive in your “spot wallet.” Verify via “Assets.”
3- Buy BTC or ETH :
- Go to “Trade” > “Spot.”
- Search for the pair : “BTC/USDT” or “ETH/USDT.”
- Method 1 : Market buy : Click “Buy,” enter the amount (e.g., €50), and confirm. You buy at the current price ($112,600 for BTC, $4,192 for ETH).
- Method 2 : Limit buy : Set a target price (e.g., $107,000 for BTC if dip) and wait. Useful for buying low post-expiration.
