Ethereum’s Meteoric Rise, but Beware of Profit-Taking !

Ethereum has crossed a symbolic threshold, coming within 7% of the psychological $4,000 barrier. This remarkable 27% surge in just one week raises numerous questions about what happens next. What are the key signals to monitor in order to anticipate the next move for the second-largest cryptocurrency ?

graphique Exchange blance en ETH
Source: Glassnode

Since early July, the Ethereum balance held on exchanges has plummeted by more than 317,000 ETH, equivalent to over $1.18 billion. This dramatic decline reflects investors’ confidence in continued price appreciation. Demand significantly exceeds available supply, mechanically boosting ETH’s valuation.

Some market participants are even betting on an imminent breach of the $4,000 psychological threshold, adding further bullish pressure. However, this level has historically acted as a strong resistance zone, likely to trigger massive profit-taking.

Beware the “Belief-Denial” Zone Trap

Ethereum’s NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator is currently approaching the “belief-denial” zone. This ratio signals whether investors are generally in a state of unrealized gains or losses. Notably, every time ETH has entered this zone in the past, a short-term correction has followed.

This level often acts as a saturation point where the most optimistic investors seek to secure their profits. Breaking through $4,000 could therefore trigger a significant wave of selling, temporarily challenging the bullish trend.

Technical Analysis : Local Top Between $4,200 and $4,500 ?

The Fibonacci Bollinger Bands indicate a potential peak around $4,480 within 3 days. Indeed, although profit-taking might slow its rise in the coming weeks, ETH should nevertheless manage to break through the $4,111 resistance.

cours Ethereum eth en 3 jours

This strong historical resistance hasn’t been breached since December 2021. It’s therefore the perfect opportunity for ETH whales to liquidate their holdings and the shorts positioned just above. This confluence increases the probability of ETH’s continued bullish momentum beyond $4,100 in the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, between $4,200 and $4,500, caution will be necessary due to correction risks.

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In this context, Ethereum’s future will essentially depend on investors’ continued appetite for ETH. If accumulation persists, a decisive break above $4,500 would pave the way to new all-time highs. But beware of correction risks in case of massive profit-taking, which could push prices back toward $3,500 or even $3,000.

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