Ethereum Caught Between Two Fires
This morning, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $3,068 — which is 37% below its peak of $4,922 in mid-August — even as we may be witnessing the most aggressive institutional accumulation campaign ever seen on this network.
BitMine Immersion Technologies (NASDAQ: BMNR), the publicly traded company chaired by Tom Lee (Fundstrat), now holds 3.73 million ETH, worth approximately $11.4 billion. This represents 3.1% of the total circulating supply — a proportionally larger position than MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings.
And yet, the price continues to fall. Here’s why this time, the playbook isn’t repeating itself.
The Q3 Playbook That Worked Perfectly
July to September 2025: BitMine added 2.44 million ETH (+1,495% treasury increase) while ETH surged +66.8% to $4,922. The pattern was crystal clear:
- Every large on-chain purchase was followed by an immediate pump.
- BMNR stock climbed 45% over the quarter.
- Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) were THE dominant narrative.
It was the 2025 version of the 2021 MicroStrategy playbook, and it worked flawlessly.
What Changed in Q4: Three Insurmountable Walls
- Cascading Liquidations Greater Than Voluntary Buying
From December 5th to 7th, over $1.2 billion in ETH long positions were liquidated (CoinGlass). When hundreds of thousands of over-leveraged traders sell simultaneously, even $500 million injected by BitMine over 72 hours means nothing. It’s pure market physics. - Quantitative Tightening
Tom Lee himself acknowledged this last week: since the collapse of several market makers in late October, the crypto market has been experiencing its own monetary tightening. Less overall liquidity means large purchases absorb forced selling less effectively. Result: the 900,000 ETH added in Q4 (+33%) had virtually no price impact. - Hostile Macro Environment and Increased Competition
- FOMC meeting Wednesday: real risk of a pause in the rate-cutting cycle.
- Japanese yen strengthening = unwinding of crypto carry trades.
- Spot Ethereum ETFs: net outflows this week (unlike Bitcoin ETFs).
- Stablecoins: $6 trillion in volume transferred in 2025, but the majority now bypass ETH fees thanks to L2s and competing chains.
The Number That Hurts for Ethereum
For now, BitMine’s average purchase cost since October is around $3,250. This puts them at a current unrealized loss on their entire treasury of $2.1 billion in less than three months.
The major technical support level sits at $2,620 to $2,800. Below that, we enter a zone where even corporate treasuries begin to doubt.
Despite all this, Tom Lee maintains his long-term target of $12,000 to $62,000 and continues buying, but the market is sending him a clear message: today, a single large buyer is no longer enough to reverse the trend when the overall liquidity structure is broken.
In conclusion, BitMine hasn’t lost its conviction — the market has lost its ability to absorb buying pressure like before.
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