From $14 to $14,000: How Polymarket turned a $14 bet into a fortune with an unlikely wager
In the world of crypto, stories like these fuel legends - a tiny investment turning into a fortune. Trader Jarvis achieved this feat on Polymarket, turning $14 into $14,000, a 1000x ROI, not from a lucky bet on an election or Bitcoin price, but from keen observation and swift reaction to a market anomaly on a Dota 2 match.
Translated on December 26, 2025 at 13:15 by Simon Dumoulin
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The Anatomy of a Perfect Trade: How an API Error Created a Golden Opportunity
It all happened during a DOTA 2 match between teams Komodo and Kopite. With the score tied at 1-1 and everyone waiting for the decisive third game, an unexpected event occurred. The game’s official API declared Komodo the winner by forfeit (2-1), effectively canceling the third game.
I saw lots of people posting about Jarvis's win, but no one seemed to know exactly what happened.
I'll break it down so you can profit from similar opportunities.
The series between Komodo and Kopite was tied 1-1. While everyone waited for the third game, something weird was… pic.twitter.com/KQBVUeaw3D
However, moments later, the Polymarket market offered a bet on “over 2.5 games played”. This proposition was incorrect, but it sowed confusion among trading bots. These bots, seeing a final score of 2-1, interpreted that three games had indeed been played, creating a massive discrepancy between reality and market data.
The Reaction Worth $14,000
This confusion led the bots to offer thousands of shares for this bet at a ridiculously low price of 0.1 cent each. That’s when Jarvis stepped in. Having spotted the anomaly before anyone else, he immediately purchased $14 worth of these shares, scooping up a massive quantity of positions for pennies on the dollar.
Within minutes, all available shares were sold. When the market resolved, the “over 2.5 games” bet was declared a loss, and the value of the “no” shares exploded, transforming Jarvis’s investment into $14,000. Other traders, like “chiwawinha” who pocketed $7,000, also profited from this window of opportunity.
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This story is a masterclass in market inefficiency arbitrage. It demonstrates that on platforms like Polymarket, the biggest gains don’t always come from correctly predicting an event, but from the ability to detect and exploit data errors and anomalies.
As trader Sonix points out, “Polymarket has these kinds of opportunities every two weeks, you just have to find them”. This requires constant vigilance, a deep understanding of market mechanisms and APIs, and rapid execution. For the most attentive traders, the next x1000 opportunity may be hiding in the next bot error.
Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it is important not to invest more than you can afford to lose.
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