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From $14 to $14,000: How Polymarket turned a $14 bet into a fortune with an unlikely wager
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From $14 to $14,000: How Polymarket turned a $14 bet into a fortune with an unlikely wager

In the world of crypto, stories like these fuel legends - a tiny investment turning into a fortune. Trader Jarvis achieved this feat on Polymarket, turning $14 into $14,000, a 1000x ROI, not from a lucky bet on an election or Bitcoin price, but from keen observation and swift reaction to a market anomaly on a Dota 2 match.

Written by Charles Ledoux

Translated on December 26, 2025 at 13:15 by Simon Dumoulin

Jarvis trading with Luffy holding cash on blue and yellow background with Polymarket logo on the left.
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The Anatomy of a Perfect Trade: How an API Error Created a Golden Opportunity

It all happened during a DOTA 2 match between teams Komodo and Kopite. With the score tied at 1-1 and everyone waiting for the decisive third game, an unexpected event occurred. The game’s official API declared Komodo the winner by forfeit (2-1), effectively canceling the third game.

However, moments later, the Polymarket market offered a bet on “over 2.5 games played”. This proposition was incorrect, but it sowed confusion among trading bots. These bots, seeing a final score of 2-1, interpreted that three games had indeed been played, creating a massive discrepancy between reality and market data.

The Reaction Worth $14,000

This confusion led the bots to offer thousands of shares for this bet at a ridiculously low price of 0.1 cent each. That’s when Jarvis stepped in. Having spotted the anomaly before anyone else, he immediately purchased $14 worth of these shares, scooping up a massive quantity of positions for pennies on the dollar.

Within minutes, all available shares were sold. When the market resolved, the “over 2.5 games” bet was declared a loss, and the value of the “no” shares exploded, transforming Jarvis’s investment into $14,000. Other traders, like “chiwawinha” who pocketed $7,000, also profited from this window of opportunity.

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The Lesson: Vigilance Pays More Than Prediction

This story is a masterclass in market inefficiency arbitrage. It demonstrates that on platforms like Polymarket, the biggest gains don’t always come from correctly predicting an event, but from the ability to detect and exploit data errors and anomalies.

As trader Sonix points out, “Polymarket has these kinds of opportunities every two weeks, you just have to find them”. This requires constant vigilance, a deep understanding of market mechanisms and APIs, and rapid execution. For the most attentive traders, the next x1000 opportunity may be hiding in the next bot error.

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Charles Ledoux

Charles Ledoux

Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.

DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.

DISCLAIMER

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it is important not to invest more than you can afford to lose.

InvestX is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and cannot be held liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused by the use of any product or service featured in this article. Investments in crypto assets are inherently risky; readers should conduct their own research before taking any action and invest only within their financial means. This article does not constitute investment advice.

Risk Warning : Trading financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, including the possibility of losing all or part of your investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can be influenced by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Margin trading increases financial risks.

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are complex instruments with a high risk of rapid capital loss due to leverage. Between 74% and 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should assess whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Before engaging in financial or cryptocurrency trading, you must be fully informed about the associated risks and fees, carefully evaluate your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance, and seek professional advice if needed. InvestX.fr and the InvestX application may provide general market commentary, which does not constitute investment advice and should not be interpreted as such. Please consult an independent financial advisor for any investment-related questions. InvestX.fr disclaims any liability for errors, misinvestments, inaccuracies, or omissions and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information, texts, graphics, links, or other materials provided.

Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.

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