Gold vs. Bitcoin: Why traders are betting on a $20,000 Gold explosion

A Historic Flash Crash: From Euphoria to Purge

The precious metals market has experienced a sequence of extreme volatility. After breaking through psychological resistance and reaching an unprecedented peak near $5,600 per ounce at the end of January, the price of gold (XAU/USD) suffered a brutal rejection.

Within just a few sessions, the yellow metal erased a significant portion of its gains, plunging toward the $4,300 zone. This panic sell movement, exacerbated by massive profit-taking and the announcement of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the Fed (perceived as a monetary hawk), liquidated numerous leveraged long positions.

Despite this severe correction, the market structure remains intriguing. Where most retail investors see a bearish signal, the “smart money” appears to be taking advantage of this dip to reposition for even more extreme scenarios.

11,000 Contracts for a $20,000 Target

This is the anomaly that’s causing a stir among on-chain analysts and derivatives experts: the options market is recording suspicious and massive activity on Call Spreads expiring in December 2026.

Specifically, traders have accumulated approximately 11,000 contracts betting on gold reaching $15,000, or even $20,000. For these options to expire “in the money,” gold’s price would need to nearly triple in less than ten months.

According to market data, these positions resemble low-cost “lottery tickets” with explosive asymmetric returns. If a scenario of hyperinflation or a major geopolitical crisis materializes, these options could generate colossal gains, transforming a modest stake into a fortune.

Bitcoin vs Gold: The Battle of Safe Haven Assets

This bet on gold comes at a time when Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to validate its status as the ultimate safe haven asset in the face of this volatility shock. While gold has shown rapid resilience capacity after its crash, Bitcoin has also corrected severely, testing the $70,000 zone without a comparable immediate rebound.

This divergence forces crypto investors to ask crucial questions. If institutions are hedging with gold at $20,000, are they anticipating a collapse of the fiat system that Bitcoin could also benefit from, or do they see the yellow metal as the only true safe haven?

For now, the correlation between the two assets remains complex, but the accumulation of these call options on gold suggests that 2026’s volatility is just beginning.

If gold manages to break out of its consolidation and maintain its 3-day order block at $4,300 as support, the metal could target these stratospheric heights. The impact on global liquidity would then be seismic. Such a movement would validate the monetary devaluation thesis, the historical fuel of crypto bull runs. Nevertheless, such a scenario would take several years to materialize.

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