Post-2025: Soft Landing or Bear Market?
In the crypto industry, cyclicality reigns supreme. After a 2024-2025 period marked by high volatility and, for many, the achievement of new ATHs, the year 2026 is shaping up as a pivotal one. Historically, years following a cycle peak are often synonymous with correction or extended consolidation phases.
Haseeb Qureshi, an iconic figure in crypto venture capital through Dragonfly, warns against excessive euphoria. While the market has experienced an impressive rally, 2026 could mark a return to a more fundamental reality. The era of pure speculation is giving way to a demand for profitability and real utility. For investors, the question is whether we’re heading toward a classic bearish scenario or if institutional adoption will maintain elevated price levels.
Regulation and Macro: The New Masters of the Game
According to Qureshi, technical analysis alone won’t be sufficient to navigate 2026. Two exogenous factors will dominate the trend:
- Regulatory clarity: After years of ambiguity, particularly in the United States, 2026 should see the concrete implementation of new legislative frameworks. While this may hinder certain borderline projects, it’s a bullish signal for the massive influx of institutional capital that has been waiting for clear rules of the game.
- The macroeconomic environment: Interest rates and global liquidity will remain the primary drivers. Easing monetary policy could fuel an explosion in certain sectors like DeFi or RWA (Real World Assets), while tightening would prolong the crypto winter.
The VC Vision: Where Is the Smart Money Going?
As a fund manager, Qureshi highlights a paradigm shift in investments. The time when any whitepaper could raise millions is over. For 2026, Dragonfly and other major VCs are betting on infrastructure and interoperability.
Investors should expect a capital rotation. Purely speculative narratives (such as certain memecoins) could experience a violent retracement, in favor of protocols generating real revenue (Real Yield). Project survival will depend on their ability to weather a potentially less liquid period without losing their user base.
2026 will likely not be the year of easy money. It’s a year of building and selective sorting. For Haseeb Qureshi, those who survive this period, whether marked by stagnation or decline, will be the giants of the next bull run. Caution is advised: keep cash on the sidelines to buy the dip if the opportunity arises, and prioritize solid fundamentals over fleeting hype.
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