Bitcoin Enters the Final Phase of its Bull Cycle: When Will It Reach Its Peak?
Bitcoin has struggled to maintain its bullish momentum since early October, despite a macroeconomic context that should have been favorable. The leading cryptocurrency breached the psychological level of $110,000 downward following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates on October 29. This mixed market reaction raises legitimate questions about the strength of the current cycle and BTC’s ability to continue its upward trajectory.
Contrary to the expectations of the most optimistic bulls, the cryptocurrency market has displayed a largely pessimistic sentiment this October. However, according to Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, this consolidation phase could precede one final major rally before the arrival of the next bear market. The blockchain expert bases his analysis on technical models that have historically predicted previous cycle peaks with precision.
Peak Expected Between $143,000 and $146,000 According to the SMA Intersect Max Model
In a publication on X dated October 31, Joao Wedson shared a detailed analysis based on the SMA Intersect Max Model, an indicator that has accurately identified the tops of Bitcoin’s previous bull cycles. According to this model, represented by a blue line on his charts, the BTC price should reach a new all-time high in a range between $143,000 and $146,000.
This forecast is also supported by the Bitcoin Intelligent Model, whose price recently increased from $60,000 to $62,664. Alphractal’s CEO emphasizes that once this indicator reaches the $68,000 zone, it could signal the exact day of Bitcoin’s new all-time high. This level would therefore represent a crucial temporal marker for traders looking to identify the optimal exit timing.
Wedson insists that the market is currently going through a distribution phase, characterized by lateral movements and a search for liquidity both upward and downward. This technical configuration is typical of the final stages of a bull cycle, when smart money begins to distribute their positions to retail investors still convinced of an imminent rise to extreme levels.
The Distribution Phase: A Warning Signal for Investors
The founder of Alphractal warns against the ambient euphoria that persists among many investors. “Now, many are afraid to sell, convinced that we’re heading straight to $250,000,” explains Wedson. This market psychology represents precisely the classic signature of a distribution phase according to the analyst. Historically, cycle peaks form when the general consensus still anticipates substantial gains.
Savvy investors recognize these distribution patterns as opportunities to secure their profits rather than chasing hypothetical gains. The current lateral price movement, oscillating around $110,000, corresponds to this dynamic where institutional sellers progressively transfer their positions to less experienced buyers.
Wedson also warns that the bear market could arrive faster than anticipated by the market. This caution aligns with observations from many on-chain analysts who note an accumulation of bearish signals: reduced trading volumes, decreased network activity, and capital rotation towards stablecoins. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at approximately $110,420, slightly up 0.1% over 24 hours, but still showing a decline of more than 1% over the week.
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