After over 90 days of consolidation, Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) appears ready to awaken. Technical indicators are turning bullish, with RSI rising, but caution is advised as capital flows remain uncertain. Is HBAR poised for a breakout this time, or is this another false start? Here is the full analysis to unravel the intrigue.
The technical analysis of HBAR reveals a mixed picture. On one hand, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has been gradually climbing and recently crossed above the neutral 50 threshold. It has now established itself in bullish territory. This signal typically indicates returning buying pressure. It also suggests that momentum could be shifting in favor of the bulls. For traders following momentum analysis, this represents an initial green light.
However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tells a much less optimistic story. This indicator, which measures buying and selling pressure flows while accounting for volume, has just plunged below the zero line to reach its lowest monthly level. In practical terms, this means investors are exiting their HBAR positions rather than accumulating. This divergence between a bullish RSI and a bearish CMF is typical of indecision phases where price may rise due to a lack of sellers, but without genuine buying conviction.
This imbalance raises a fundamental question: can we truly call this a sustainable bullish breakout without fresh capital inflows? The history of the crypto market shows that the most successful breakouts are always accompanied by a significant increase in volume and liquidity inflows. Without this element, the risk of a false breakout (bull trap) remains high.
The $0.230 level represents the critical resistance line to monitor. It marks the top of the descending wedge that has confined HBAR for three months. A clear daily close above this threshold, ideally accompanied by above-average volume, would technically validate the breakout. In this optimistic scenario, the first target sits around $0.242, representing a potential gain of approximately 8% from current levels.
However, the bearish scenario deserves equal attention. If HBAR fails to break through $0.230 or executes a false breakout followed by a quick rejection, the supports to watch are at $0.219, then $0.213. Losing these levels would open the path toward $0.205, a zone corresponding to the lower boundary of the descending wedge. A return to this price would represent a correction of approximately 8.5% from current levels.
More cautious traders will wait for clear confirmation before taking positions. For buyers, this means waiting for a close above $0.230 with a successful retest of this level as new support. For sellers or short positions, a clear rejection with volume at $0.230 would offer an interesting entry point to play the range continuation.
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