Supply and Demand: The Saylor “Wall”
Impossible to ignore the news that shook the start of the week: Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy are continuing their aggressive accumulation. The company confirmed the acquisition of 15,400 additional Bitcoin for approximately $1.5 billion, at an average price around $96,000.
This move sends a strong signal to institutions: the “smart money” isn’t waiting for a significant retracement to position itself. By absorbing a phenomenal amount of supply available on exchanges, Saylor is creating a genuine supply shock. This “Treasury Reserve” strategy acts as a safety net for the price, reinforcing bullish sentiment despite the current price stagnation.
Macroeconomics: Powell and Employment Under Surveillance
While Saylor supports demand, it’s the Federal Reserve that holds the keys to liquidity. Investors’ attention now turns to Washington.
- Wednesday, December 4: Jerome Powell will speak at the DealBook Summit. The market will scrutinize every word to anticipate the Fed’s mid-December decision. An overly hawkish tone (favoring maintaining high rates) could cool risk assets.
- Friday, December 6: Release of the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) report. This is the most volatile macro data point. A labor market that’s too robust could push back hopes for rate cuts, while a moderate figure would validate the “soft landing” scenario, ideal for cryptos.
The correlation between US indices (S&P 500) and the crypto market remains strong. Disappointment on these figures could trigger increased volatility and liquidate highly leveraged positions.
What to Watch
The week will be binary. On one hand, institutional buying pressure (ETF + MicroStrategy) acts as massive support. On the other, fear of a restrictive Fed still looms. The key will be the market’s reaction to Powell’s speech: if the market ignores negative macroeconomic news, it’s often a precursor to an unstoppable bull run.
Here’s the calendar for this week:
| Day | Date (Dec. 2025) | Main Event | Impact / What to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Dec. 1 | Jerome Powell speaks — 8 PM ET | Dovish/hawkish tone → direct impact on liquidity and risk sentiment (BTC, stocks, gold) |
| Michael Saylor expected to make a major announcement (“green dots” instead of “orange dots”) | Possible new corporate Bitcoin purchase or an MSTR-linked derivative product | ||
| Tuesday | Dec. 2 | (No major macro event listed) | — |
| Wednesday | Dec. 3 | Ethereum “Fusaka” Upgrade (epoch 411392 — ~9:49 PM UTC) | +60M gas limit, PeerDAS, passkeys, 8× throughput → major boost for ETH + Layer-2 scalability |
| Binance Blockchain Week (Day 1) | Talks, partnerships, product unveilings | ||
| U.S. November ADP Employment Report | Private employment indicator → preview of Friday’s NFP | ||
| Thursday | Dec. 4 | Binance Blockchain Week (Day 2): CZ vs Peter Schiff — Bitcoin vs Tokenized Gold Debate | High-visibility event shaping BTC vs gold narrative |
| All Week | Dec. 1–5 | U.S.–Ukraine negotiations (exact dates not confirmed) | Geopolitics → risk-on/risk-off flows |
| Nvidia vs Google (antitrust lawsuit or strategic announcement?) | Potential impact on tech sector and semiconductors | ||
| China–Japan tensions (Senkaku Islands / East China Sea) | Asian risk-off pressure, yen safe-haven bid | ||
| Friday | Dec. 5 | U.S. September PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation metric) | Key input for Fed policy expectations and global market positioning |
And here’s a summary of last week’s events:
| Event | Details | Observed Impact |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Global downgrades Tether to “5 (weak)” | Riskier reserves and lack of transparency | Pressure on USDT, temporary USDT/USD spread |
| Crypto VC — Q3 2025 | $4.59B invested (−59% QoQ, −15% in number of deals) | Significant cooling in crypto venture capital activity |
| Chinese crackdown on stablecoins & virtual assets | PBOC + CSRC suspension of Hong Kong stablecoin initiatives (Ant Group, JD.com, etc.) | Hong Kong crypto stocks down −10% on Monday |
| Galaxy Digital (Novogratz) | Talks to become LP on Polymarket & Kalshi | Institutionalization of prediction markets |
| Upbit hack — $30M stolen | Lazarus group (North Korea) suspected | Full reimbursement by Upbit, short-term confidence hit |
| JPMorgan upgrades Chinese stocks | Positive catalysts: stimulus and monetary easing | CSI300 & Hang Seng rebound toward end of week |
Outlook for December 2025: A Decisive Month for Bitcoin and Cryptos
The macroeconomic and geopolitical context remains particularly charged: ongoing US-Ukraine discussions, persistent Sino-Japanese tensions, and the Nvidia-Google legal battle form a volatile backdrop. Added to this is the official end of the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening on December 1, which will release approximately $95 billion in monthly liquidity.
Technical and on-chain signals are mixed:
- Realized losses by short-term holders reached $630 million per day, a level only seen during the June 2022 crash.
- Bitcoin miner transaction fees are at their lowest in 12 months, highlighting strong dependence on block subsidies as the next halving approaches.
Currently at $84,800, BTC has failed to hold above its crucial support at $85,200. If it doesn’t quickly reclaim this level, it will likely drop below $80,000 in the coming weeks.
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