Basic trading, a strategy that capitalizes on the spread between spot prices and futures contracts, is making a comeback. Following a lull in 2025, macroeconomic signals could reignite its appeal. A potential catalyst could be a Fed interest rate cut.
Basis trading, which involves exploiting the gap between spot price and futures contracts, has experienced a period of relative calm in 2025. This strategy heavily depends on the macroeconomic environment. A reduction in interest rates could stimulate liquidity and investors’ risk appetite, thus reviving interest in Bitcoin basis trading.
Indeed, data from the CME platform reveals that open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts has dropped by more than 80,000 BTC since the beginning of the year, while the annualized premium has remained below 10%. This situation contrasts with the end of the previous year, when a premium of approximately 20% was observed. Reduced volatility and low institutional leverage have kept futures contract premiums at moderate levels.
If the U.S. Federal Reserve indeed proceeds with an interest rate cut, this could potentially ease liquidity conditions and energize appetite for risk assets. This dynamic could pave the way for a revitalization of Bitcoin basis trading, offering new opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on cryptocurrency market movements.
As global monetary policies continue to shape the financial and crypto-economic landscape, savvy investors will closely monitor these developments to identify emerging trends and seize growth opportunities in the cryptocurrency sector.
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