Key Levels for Bitcoin Price Analysis Today: 3 Key Levels to Monitor

The Bitcoin (BTC) market is at a critical juncture as the year draws to a close. Analysts suggest that three converging moving averages could dictate the market's upcoming trend.

Written by Charles Ledoux

Translated on October 1, 2025 at 08:57 by Simon Dumoulin

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SMA Convergence on Bitcoin

After dropping to nearly $109,000 at the beginning of the week before climbing to $115,000, bulls appear to have regained control of Bitcoin. The price currently sits around $114,500.

In yesterday's livestream I talked about the key levels to watch as we approach the monthly close. In the (U.S.) overnight hours, $BTC bulls lost support at 3 Key Moving Averages.

There is some bid liquidity around $111k that could minimize the downside risk if it doesn't get… pic.twitter.com/R0AvrWC7Su
— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) September 30, 2025

Analyst Keith Alan, co-founder of the Material Indicators trading platform, has identified a clustering of simple moving averages (SMA) forming a cluster across a narrow price range. These averages are lagging price indicators often used as support and resistance levels.

The three upper lines – the 21, 50, and 100-day SMAs – are currently almost at the same level as Bitcoin’s current price. The lower line is the 200-day SMA. At the time of writing, BTC is trading slightly above the 50-day SMA, but below the other two averages.

“They’re currently very close to each other,” Alan notes in a video update on X. According to him, it’s crucial for the price to close above these trend lines. “It’s not about how you start the day, it’s not even about what happens at noon; what matters is how you finish the day.”

A daily close above the 21-day SMA at $114,118 would be, according to Alan, a sign of strength – provided it maintains this position at the beginning of the month. Additionally, he adds that significant liquidity around $111,000 should minimize any drop if these levels are lost.

Macroeconomic Pressures and Volatility

Beyond technical levels, other external factors are influencing the volatility and price trajectory of Bitcoin. This week, several U.S. macroeconomic data points will be released, primarily related to the labor market.

Labor market weaknesses are crucial for the Federal Reserve, as they influence its future rate-cutting policy. Furthermore, the U.S. government shutdown starting October 1st could delay this data, which is currently increasing uncertainty for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

In summary, the Bitcoin market is at a critical crossroads, where key price levels could determine its future trajectory. Technical indicators and geopolitical factors are creating a tense atmosphere for investors. It’s therefore essential to closely monitor short-term developments to anticipate market movements.

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Charles Ledoux

Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.

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