Monad's MON token has surged over 70% since its launch, defying the downward trend in the overall crypto market. Is this rally sustainable or just speculative frenzy? On-chain data reveals conflicting signals warranting further analysis.
The public mainnet launch of Monad on November 24 marked an unexpected turning point in a crypto market dominated by volatility and post-airdrop disappointments. While Bitcoin struggles to maintain $90,000 and the total market capitalization has shed more than a trillion dollars since October, the MON token is charting its own bullish trajectory. The token currently trades around $0.04, representing a spectacular progression of 50 to 70% compared to its public sale price of $0.025.
This relative resilience in a hostile environment is attracting the attention of traders and analysts. The very structure of the Monad launch partially explains this outperformance. Only approximately 10 to 11% of the 100 billion tokens were unlocked initially, while over 50.6% of the total supply remains locked until 2029. This limitation of circulating supply mechanically creates upward pressure against sustained demand.
Monad’s airdrop design stands out sharply from standard industry practices. Of 4.73 billion MON distributed to 289,000 eligible accounts, 3.33 billion were actually claimed. The fundamental difference lies in the targeting: Monad prioritized active DeFi users, serious NFT traders, testnet contributors, and DAO participants, deliberately excluding simple quest farmers.
This selective approach created a more stable holder base less inclined to dump their tokens immediately. The public sale on Coinbase, which raised $269 million from approximately 85,820 participants, reinforced this dynamic. These buyers, who entered around the $0.025 price point, show stronger conviction than typical airdrop recipients.
The first day of trading confirmed this structural solidity. MON did drop approximately 15% in the first hours, touching $0.02 under pressure from airdrop sellers. But this correction was quickly absorbed by buyers. Within 24 hours, the token found equilibrium around $0.03-0.035, avoiding the massive 50 to 80% collapse that characterizes most Layer 1 launches.
Monad’s first 24 hours generated on-chain traction rarely observed for a new Layer 1. The data recorded by Nansen speaks for itself: 3.7 million transactions executed, 153,000 active addresses, and 18,000 contract deployments. These figures exceed what some established blockchains achieve in an entire year.
Total Value Locked already stands at approximately $90 million, with major protocols like Uniswap, Gearbox, and Curve operational from the first hours. DEX volume surpassed the $70 million mark, supported by concentrated liquidity pools and deployment incentive programs.
Additionally, the MON token was added on the Solana blockchain and has already generated nearly $90 million in volume.
This early activity distinguishes Monad from projects that launch a token before having a functional ecosystem. Arbitrageurs, trading bots, and developers immediately invested in the blockchain, creating real utility rather than mere speculation on future potential. Deep liquidity in the order books of major exchanges allowed absorption of selling flows without provoking excessive slippage.
MON’s immediate integration on major platforms constitutes a decisive advantage. Coinbase, Upbit, Bithumb, Kraken, Bybit, Bitget, Crypto.com, and MEXC all listed the token from day one. This extensive coverage contrasts with previous Layer 1 launches that relied on fragmented liquidity pools and thin order books.
Derivatives markets also opened quickly on multiple platforms, offering traders sophisticated hedging options. This infrastructure allows shorting, speculating on upside, or hedging positions without flooding spot markets. Professional market makers tightened spreads, facilitating inter-exchange arbitrage and reducing liquidity fragmentation.
Arthur Hayes, influential crypto trading figure, captured the moment’s ambiguity with a sarcastic comment: “Just what this bull market needs another low float, high FDV useless L1. But obvi I aped. It’s a bull market bitches! MON to $10.” His observation underscores the tension between fundamental skepticism and speculative opportunism that characterizes trading of new low-float tokens.
In the short term, conditions remain favorable. Monad has absorbed its initial unlocks without major pressure. On-chain usage continues to grow and incentive programs are fueling activity. The momentum could be maintained for a few weeks as long as liquidity remains deep and spot demand stays sustained.
The medium term presents more uncertainties. Progressive unlock tranches will increase circulating supply over the coming months, creating structural selling pressure even if insiders distribute their tokens with discipline. Activity could normalize after exhaustion of the first incentive waves, and any TVL slowdown would quickly modify the bullish narrative.
Long term, the fully diluted valuation of $3 to 4 billion places high expectations on the ecosystem. The rally’s sustainability will depend on Monad’s ability to convert its impressive start into sustainable ecosystem growth. Without continuous TVL expansion, attractive applications, and real developer traction, a valuation compression becomes likely as supply extends.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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