In July, the US government spent more than twice what it collected in revenue. A staggering figure — and one that is reinforcing the conviction of one of the biggest names in the crypto industry.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, is leaning on these alarming fiscal data points to maintain a resolutely bullish stance on Bitcoin, even as broader market enthusiasm has cooled considerably.
Behind the posture of a seasoned investor lies an increasingly widely shared macro thesis: the structural inability of governments to control their spending is, paradoxically, the strongest argument for holding BTC.
$432 Billion Deficit in a Single Month: The Numbers Alarming Novogratz
The picture is stark. According to data shared by market strategist Charlie Bilello, the United States collected $334 billion in federal revenue in July, against expenditures of $766 billion. The monthly deficit therefore stands at $432 billion — a level Novogratz himself describes as “terrifying.”
The Galaxy Digital CEO does not stop at commenting on the numbers: he points directly at those responsible. A Congress unable to say no to spending, ongoing armed conflicts adding to the bill, and a fiscal target — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent‘s much-discussed 3-3-3 plan — that remains well out of reach. “Unfortunately, we are not even close,” he wrote on X.
Novogratz goes further by drawing a direct line between this explosion in debt and the persistent inflation seen across many sectors over the past decade. In his view, voters will make incumbents pay for it at the next midterm elections — regardless of political affiliation.
Novogratz’s Macro Thesis: Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Spending Addiction
This is where Novogratz’s conviction truly comes into focus. In an environment where crypto market sentiment remains subdued and Bitcoin‘s price action is hovering around $63,416 at the time of writing, the Galaxy Digital CEO holds firm on his long-term outlook.
“It is governments’ inability to manage their addiction to spending that keeps me bullish on BTC, even in a year where energy in the crypto space is low,” he explains. A statement that perfectly encapsulates the thesis: Bitcoin is not a bet on growth — it is a hedge against the monetary debasement engineered by over-indebted governments.
This reading aligns with that of many macro analysts closely monitoring signals from the US bond market. Novogratz himself warns: “At some point, the bond market will force fiscal discipline.” A sovereign debt crisis scenario that has historically always benefited assets with a limited supply — and Bitcoin, with its hard cap of 21 million coins, is the ultimate archetype.
