While most check the weather to dress, a group of traders on Polymarket leverage it to make money, turning rain and sunshine forecasts into six or seven-figure profits. Forget elections or Bitcoin prices, the latest battleground for prediction whales is London's daily temperature. Two radically different strategies are emerging, showing various ways of turning public data into a significant financial advantage.
The case of Hans323 is spectacular. This trader accumulated over $1.1 million in profits by exploiting a simple yet powerful temporal inefficiency. His edge lies in the few minutes of lag between official weather forecast updates and the adjustment of odds on Polymarket.
The method is straightforward: monitor weather APIs, detect a forecast change, buy massive positions on Polymarket before the market reacts, then sell as soon as the odds align with the new reality.
One of his most profitable trades involved investing $92,632 at odds of 8 cents for a profit of $1,018,475. It’s a race against time that requires substantial capital and lightning-fast execution, but transforms public information into an almost guaranteed advantage.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, an anonymous bot (known by the address 0xf2e346ab) proved that massive capital isn’t necessary for success. Starting with just $204, this bot generated approximately $24,000 in profits with a 73% success rate across over 1,300 trades. Its strategy doesn’t rely on speed, but on logic. The bot specializes exclusively in London temperature range markets.
It identifies poor probability distributions between adjacent ranges (“buckets”). It simultaneously buys “YES” positions on narrow and undervalued ranges (typically between 20 and 30 cents) and hedges by betting against neighboring ranges.
At resolution, only one range wins, but the gain on that one exceeds the combined losses on all others, guaranteeing a net profit. It’s a methodical approach that exploits structural inefficiencies in the market rather than temporal lags.
These two strategies work because weather markets on Polymarket are still relatively inefficient. Liquidity is lower than on major political markets, and there are fewer sophisticated traders, which creates mispricing opportunities.
Moreover, the data is public and short-term forecasts are relatively reliable. Whether through speed or logic, these traders have proven that even the most mundane conversation topic can become a source of extraordinary profits for those who know where to look in prediction markets.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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