After seven months of silence, a legendary trader on Polymarket known for his flawless bets on Israel has made a bold move: betting on an Israeli military action against Iran by the end of the month. Is this just speculation or a case of insider trading? Keep an eye on this intriguing on-chain signal.
In the world of prediction markets, certain wallets are followed like true oracles. This is the case with Polymarket user ricosuave666. Spotted by on-chain analysis tools like Lookonchain, this trader displays a disturbingly precise track record.
After more than six months of radio silence, this wallet has just allocated approximately $8,000 on the probability of an Israeli strike. While the amount may seem modest for a whale, it’s the track record that raises concerns: in the past, every bet placed by this account on events related to Israel has resulted in a profit. In total, the trader has accumulated over $155,000 in net gains on the platform.
This move immediately triggered a wave of speculation on X. Observers are wondering whether we’re witnessing a position based on insider information, a phenomenon increasingly common on decentralized markets like Polymarket.
This isn’t the first time Polymarket has outpaced traditional media or appeared to harbor insiders. Recently, a similar controversy erupted around Venezuela, where three anonymous wallets generated over $630,000 by betting on political events related to Nicolás Maduro before they became public.
The blockchain doesn’t lie, and the transparency of transactions allows everyone to see these movements in real time. For many analysts, these platforms are becoming more reliable leading indicators than polls or traditional news. When a player with a 100% success rate bets on a conflict, the market tends to react violently, creating a self-fulfilling prophetic effect.
Following this position, probabilities on Polymarket began to adjust. Currently, the market estimates at approximately 25% the chances of an Israeli strike before January 31, 2026, after reaching over 38%. However, looking at the March 31, 2026 deadline, the probability climbs to 54%.
This bullish sentiment on conflict (as cynical as it may seem) occurs within a context of renewed geopolitical tensions. Crypto traders, often accustomed to hedging their portfolios against global instability, are closely monitoring these metrics. An escalation could indeed trigger a correction in risk assets like altcoins, while potentially favoring Bitcoin or Gold as safe havens.
While ricosuave666’s track record is impressive, copy-trading (copying another’s bets) remains a high-risk strategy. The cryptocurrency and prediction market is volatile, and even presumed insiders can be wrong or manipulate market sentiment to their advantage. The question remains open: is this bet the harbinger of a geopolitical black swan for early 2026?
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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