Despite financial analysts predicting a historic Bull run in 2024, traders on the prediction platform Polymarket are notably skeptical. Latest data reveals a mere 21% probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year, challenging the optimistic forecasts.
Since the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Halving in April, the consensus among major financial institutions has been decidedly optimistic. Leading players like Standard Chartered and Fundstrat have not hesitated to project a Bitcoin price exceeding $150,000 before year-end. Yet the reality on the ground, as reflected by bets on Polymarket, tells a very different story.
Users of this prediction market platform, who put their own capital at stake, seem to reject the idea of an immediate parabolic rally. This 21% figure acts as a cold and rational sentiment indicator, far from the FOMO that often characterizes euphoric phases. For these traders, the crypto market is currently navigating a complex consolidation phase rather than a vertical launch pad.
Several factors explain this caution. After reaching a new ATH in October, Bitcoin underwent multiple correction and retracement phases, testing investor psychology. The absence of immediate macroeconomic catalysts and the FED’s still-strict monetary policy encourage restraint.
Where analysts sell dreams based on models of ETF inflows, Polymarket traders analyze liquidity and short-term market structure. To reach $150,000, Bitcoin would need to achieve performance of more than 100% from its current levels in less than six months. A scenario that the majority considers unlikely without a major and sudden breakout in trading volumes.
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If the $150k target seems out of reach for most bettors, this doesn’t mean sentiment is entirely bearish. The probabilities for lower targets, such as $100,000, remain significantly higher. The market appears to be betting on a gradual climb rather than a vertical explosion.
Indeed, numerous on-chain resistance levels are positioned between $99,000 and $102,000. The average median purchase price of STH at $99,000 is a genuine test, but also a historical price magnet even during bearish phases.
It’s important to note that prediction markets are dynamic. A sudden change in regulation or a favorable macroeconomic announcement could quickly reverse the trend and reignite optimism.
In summary, prediction markets can now serve as part of Bitcoin technical analysis and for gauging market sentiment. For Polymarket probabilities to climb, Bitcoin will first need to break through its current resistance levels and confirm a sustainable bullish recovery, thereby invalidating the current stagnation scenario.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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