Bitcoin’s big gamble: Will Powell’s Fed speech ignite a crypto explosion?

Bitcoin (BTC): Will the $87,000 Support Hold?

The king of cryptocurrencies is displaying nervous resilience. Currently trading around $89,100, Bitcoin is trapped in a tight range, squeezed between critical support and immediate resistance. Cautious traders are refusing to take massive positions ahead of the official rate announcement, expected to maintain the status quo between 3.50% and 3.75%.

From a technical standpoint, the $87,000 zone acts as a last line of defense before a more severe correction. If Powell’s speech is perceived as hawkish (favoring high rates to counter sticky 3% inflation), a break of this level could push BTC toward $85,000, or even lower. Trading volumes, though slightly up, show that “whales” are waiting for a clear signal to move.

Conversely, a daily close above $90,000 would validate a bullish reversal structure. For now, Bitcoin remains bearish as long as it stays below $90,000 and the upward trendline broken to the downside.

Ethereum and Altcoins: Is a Surprise Rally Possible?

While Bitcoin monopolizes attention, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to defend the psychological threshold of $2,990. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is showing signs of relative weakness, but could be the big winner of an accommodative (dovish) speech. If Powell hints at rate cuts for June 2026, liquidity could flow massively into altcoins.

The bullish scenario hinges on a surprise: if the Fed acknowledges the slowdown in the U.S. labor market, this could be interpreted as a harbinger of monetary easing. In that case, Ethereum could target a rapid breakout toward $3,200, pulling high-beta tokens like Solana along with it.

However, caution remains warranted. Historical data shows that FOMC sessions often generate violent volatility (liquidation “wicks”) in both directions before choosing a direction. Moreover, when Bitcoin rises heading into FOMC announcements, it typically retraces downward in the hours and days that follow.

Has the Market Already Priced in the Worst-Case Scenario?

With a 97% probability that rates will remain unchanged, the surprise won’t come from the numbers, but from the words. The crypto market, which has already corrected from its October 2025 highs (around $126,000), seems to have priced in a restrictive monetary policy. The real question for investors now is whether the local bottom has been reached.

If Bitcoin manages to turn the $90,000 zone into solid support after the press conference, the path toward $95,000 could open up quickly. Conversely, a violent rejection could establish a bearish trend for the rest of the first quarter.

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