Prediction markets soar to $702M volume despite regulatory headwinds

Kalshi crushes the competition and leads the charge

It’s a true show of force. On Monday, total trading volume on prediction markets reached a daily ATH of $701.7 million. While Polymarket has long held the reins, it’s the US-regulated platform, Kalshi, that captured the majority of flows.

According to recent data, Kalshi processed nearly two-thirds of this colossal volume, establishing itself as the undisputed leader for this session. This performance marks a decisive turning point: institutional investors and American retail traders appear to favor a platform compliant with local regulations to place their bets, creating massive buying pressure.

Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to generate significant volumes via blockchain, but Kalshi’s rise proves that adoption of these derivatives now extends beyond the purely crypto-native sphere. The market is in full swing, driven by massive adoption ahead of the elections.

Why this massive enthusiasm despite regulators?

This record comes amid a tense climate. Regulators, particularly the CFTC, have multiplied examinations and blocking attempts, fearing these markets could compromise electoral integrity. However, Kalshi’s recent legal victory opened the floodgates, de facto legitimizing these bets in the eyes of the general public.

Traders view these platforms as the ultimate hedging tool against political volatility. Rather than enduring market movements, they bet directly on event outcomes. The uncertainty surrounding the Trump-Harris duel acts as a catalyst, turning every poll into a trading opportunity.

The influx of liquidity is such that volumes exceed those of some small traditional exchanges. We’re witnessing a true democratization of event speculation, where the “wisdom of the crowd” is valued in real time by millions of dollars.

After the elections, can interest be sustained or do we risk a crash?

While current euphoria is undeniable, the question of sustainability arises. Once the ballot box verdict is in, will these platforms experience a brutal correction or will they manage to pivot toward other markets (Fed, economy, geopolitics)?

Kalshi’s dominance and Polymarket’s resilience suggest the sector is here to stay, but the post-election future could be calmer. Nevertheless, partnerships with the WSJ for Polymarket or CNBC for Kalshi show that adoption could extend well beyond crypto speculation.

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