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Probability of Interest Rate Cuts Plummet: How Will It Affect Bitcoin?
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Probability of Interest Rate Cuts Plummet: How Will It Affect Bitcoin?

Expectations of a Fed rate cut in December plummeted after the latest Federal Reserve minutes were released, prompting crypto investors to reassess their positions. Persistent inflation and labor market uncertainty are reshaping the landscape of risky assets for the upcoming months.

Written by Charles Ledoux

Translated on November 20, 2025 at 10:21 by Simon Dumoulin

"Jerome Powell at desk, bitcoin coins flying"
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Rate Cut Probabilities Collapse and Threaten Bitcoin

The probabilities of Federal Reserve monetary easing in December have plummeted sharply in recent weeks. The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting reveal a cautious approach in the face of inflation that refuses to fall toward the 2% target. This hawkish stance from the US central bank immediately triggered massive repricing across traditional financial markets, but also in the crypto market. Bitcoin, often considered a hedge against inflation, recorded increased volatility following this announcement.

Traders adjusted their positions in anticipation of prolonged maintenance of policy rates above 5%. This decision directly impacts the liquidity available in markets, a determining factor for digital assets that generally thrive in a low-rate environment.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Under Pressure: How Is the Crypto Market Reacting?

The maintenance of interest rates at elevated levels creates an unfavorable environment for risky assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has tested its major support around $89,000 several times since the announcement, while Ethereum struggles to maintain the psychological level of $3,000. This correction is explained by the migration of capital toward less risky investments that now offer attractive returns.

Trading volumes have increased significantly on exchange platforms, a sign that investors are actively repositioning their portfolios. Altcoins are experiencing even stronger pressure, with declines sometimes exceeding 15% on low-cap tokens. Market sentiment has clearly deteriorated, as evidenced by the Fear and Greed Index which now oscillates in the extreme fear zone.

Whales have taken advantage of this decline to accumulate Bitcoin, according to on-chain data showing an increase in wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC. This accumulation by large investors could signal long-term conviction despite the unfavorable macroeconomic context.

What Strategy Should You Adopt Facing Restrictive Monetary Policy?

In this context of prolonged monetary tightening, crypto investors must adapt their approach. Diversification becomes crucial: mixing positions in stablecoins to take advantage of DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) opportunities with reduced exposure to the most volatile assets. Staking protocols offering stable returns can also constitute an interesting alternative for generating passive yield.

The Pionex bots DCA Bot (Martingale) and Hedging bot are the safest for optimal long-term accumulation.

Indeed, the first accumulates and sells each rise and each fall to optimize returns. While the Hedging Bot uses a futures short to cover the spot DCA in case of a drop or bear market. You therefore obtain more BTC, or other altcoins, even in the event of a crash.

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Charles Ledoux

Charles Ledoux

Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.

DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.

DISCLAIMER

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it is important not to invest more than you can afford to lose.

InvestX is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and cannot be held liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused by the use of any product or service featured in this article. Investments in crypto assets are inherently risky; readers should conduct their own research before taking any action and invest only within their financial means. This article does not constitute investment advice.

Risk Warning : Trading financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, including the possibility of losing all or part of your investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can be influenced by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Margin trading increases financial risks.

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are complex instruments with a high risk of rapid capital loss due to leverage. Between 74% and 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should assess whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Before engaging in financial or cryptocurrency trading, you must be fully informed about the associated risks and fees, carefully evaluate your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance, and seek professional advice if needed. InvestX.fr and the InvestX application may provide general market commentary, which does not constitute investment advice and should not be interpreted as such. Please consult an independent financial advisor for any investment-related questions. InvestX.fr disclaims any liability for errors, misinvestments, inaccuracies, or omissions and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information, texts, graphics, links, or other materials provided.

Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.

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