A scientific initiative predicts that Bitcoin could collapse in two years and four months due to quantum supremacy. The Quantum Doomsday Clock ticks down, raising concerns for the world's most valuable cryptocurrency. Where does the real danger lie amidst concrete threats and technical speculation?
Bitcoin ‘s asymmetric cryptography relies on mathematical problems considered impossible to solve for classical computers. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically derive a private key from a public key exposed during a transaction, fundamentally undermining the network’s security.
Experts estimate that a computer with approximately 4,000 stable logical qubits would be necessary to break ECDSA within an exploitable timeframe. Current machines only reach a few hundred physical qubits with high error rates—a long technological road ahead, despite rapid advances from IBM and Google.
The Bitcoin network isn’t defenseless. Several Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) are exploring the integration of post-quantum algorithms. This transition would require community consensus and a massive protocol upgrade, a complex but necessary process to preserve the resilience of the decentralized network.
Facing this anticipated deadline, several cryptocurrencies are actively developing quantum resistance solutions. Algorand, QAN and IOTA already integrate signatures based on cryptographic schemes considered secure against quantum attacks. These protocols use algorithms such as Lamport or lattice-based signatures.
For Bitcoin holders, the most effective defensive strategy currently involves never reusing addresses. A public key is only exposed when spending funds, thus limiting the potential attack window. Unspent addresses keep their hashed public key, offering an additional layer of protection even against a quantum adversary.
The Bitcoin community actively monitors quantum developments. Several developers are working on experimental implementations of post-quantum cryptography compatible with the network architecture. The question is no longer about “if” but “when” and “how” this major technological transition will occur.
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