Solana : A Momentum Worth Watching Closely
Generally, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are a key driver of market volatility. Traders use them to assess the Fed’s sentiment and its outlook on future interest rate cuts — factors that also influence the performance of cryptocurrencies like Solana.
Between July 7 and 9, trader sentiment in the options market shifted from a bullish Put/Call ratio of 0.35 to a bearish rating of 1.19. This means the premium for bearish positions (puts) exceeded that of bullish positions (calls). It indicates traders were preparing for a potential pullback if the FOMC Minutes took a more hawkish tone.
Meanwhile, the spot market showed no strong demand. According to Coinalyze data, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) decreased in early July. However, the Open Interest (OI) increased by 11% during the same period. This suggests that July’s price action and the recent breakout were primarily driven by speculation and leverage.
Contradictory Signals for Price Evolution
In the medium term, speculation around SOL futures ETFs could influence the price direction for the third quarter. However, this week, SOL could be primarily dominated by liquidation hunts.
In this scenario, SOL could reach $154.60 or extend to $158 before targeting leveraged long positions at $145. There were nearly $600 million in cumulative buys at $145, making it a potential price magnet.
Nevertheless, the bullish structure observed during the second quarter remains intact, as long as SOL defends its realized price (average cost basis for most SOL holders), currently at $131. Any prolonged dip below this level would challenge this positive structure.
A Tense Week for Solana
In summary, the Solana price prediction for this week remains uncertain, with both bullish and bearish elements influencing market dynamics. Traders should stay vigilant for potential volatility triggered by key events, such as the release of the FOMC Minutes.
But beyond technical signals, it’s the behavior of whales and macroeconomic announcements that could truly tip the scales. In a context where liquidity remains fragile, each impulse could trigger a chain reaction. Solana has a lot at stake this week : bullish explosion or tense pullback ? The answer is imminent.
