Solana struggles to break the psychological resistance at $200, with increasing exchange outflows and holders' profitability at risk, creating market uncertainty. As selling pressure mounts, will SOL break this barrier or face a deeper retracement towards $175?
On-chain data reveals a troubling anomaly in the behavior of Solana holders. In just 48 hours, the percentage of supply in profit jumped from 52% to 70%, a spectacular increase of 18 points. Yet, the price itself only climbed by less than 5% during the same period. This glaring disparity indicates that many investors accumulated their positions around the $200 level, creating an extreme concentration zone.
This phenomenon reflects a structural fragility in the current support. When Solana’s price flirts with $200, these holders quickly swing into profit, mechanically triggering profit-taking. Conversely, when the price retreats slightly, these same positions move back into loss, causing a destabilizing yo-yo effect on the trend. This brutal volatility in profits confirms that $200 represents much more than a simple technical resistance: it’s a true psychological barrier where sell orders are concentrated.
Moreover, $200 corresponds to a POC in HTF. In other words, if the price falls below this level again, a cascade of selling could rapidly drive SOL’s price down.
At the time of writing, Solana is trading around $204, stuck just below the $210 resistance. To validate a bullish scenario, SOL must not only break through this level but crucially transform $200 into solid support. A confirmed breakout above $210 with a successful retest would open the path toward $213 and then $236, zones where buying interest could awaken and reverse the current bearish dynamic.
However, if selling pressure persists and $197 gives way, the next major support sits at $192. A break of this level would likely trigger a bearish acceleration toward $183, or even $175 in case of capitulation from the remaining bulls. These price zones correspond to Fibonacci retracement levels and former consolidation areas, making them particularly relevant for anticipating a potential technical rebound.
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Analysis of on-chain movements reveals a concerning signal for SOL bulls. Over the past ten days, approximately 1.5 million Solana tokens have been transferred to exchange platforms, representing nearly $300 million. This significant increase in exchange balances suggests that many holders prefer to liquidate their positions rather than keep them in cold storage.
Historically, an increase in deposits to exchanges often precedes short-term correction phases. The logic is simple: the more tokens available on markets, the higher the risk of a sell-off. In Solana’s case, this trend reflects a dominant bearish sentiment among investors, who anticipate either prolonged stagnation or a more pronounced correction.
This imbalance between supply and demand creates an unfavorable environment for sustainable recovery. Unless institutional buying flows or a resurgence of speculative interest absorb this selling pressure, SOL could continue to face headwinds. The market therefore remains cautious, and experienced traders are closely monitoring the evolution of these on-chain metrics to anticipate the next movement in the coming days.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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