SpaceX (SPCX) made a spectacular stock market debut in June 2026, but the stock has since suffered a sharp 33% correction from its all-time high. Yet analysts at Morgan Stanley are not throwing in the towel — not even close.
Despite the selling pressure, the investment bank is holding firm on a price target of $300, implying a potential doubling from current levels. That is a powerful signal in a market still digesting the post-IPO euphoria.
Behind the stock’s volatility lies a radical investment thesis: SpaceX is not a space company — it is a planetary-scale artificial intelligence infrastructure. And that changes everything.
A Brutal Correction After a Record-Breaking IPO
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026 at an IPO price of $135 per share, raising approximately $85.7 billion net of fees — one of the largest IPOs in financial market history. The initial valuation came in just shy of $1.77 trillion.
Investor enthusiasm quickly pushed the market cap toward $2.8 trillion at its peak. But the reversal came swiftly. SPCX is now trading around $152.71, with a market cap of approximately $2.1 trillion. A 33% correction that echoes the classic post-IPO dynamics seen across mega-cap tech stocks.
This consolidation is not necessarily a red flag. In equity markets just as in crypto, distribution phases following a euphoria peak are entirely common. The real question is one of structural support — and that is precisely where Morgan Stanley steps in with clear conviction.
Morgan Stanley Holds Firm: SpaceX Is an AI Bet, Not a Space Bet
On September 15, Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its buy rating on SPCX with a price target of $300. Analyst Adam Jonas describes SpaceX as a potential “generational compounder” — a company capable of converting energy into networked intelligence at scale. His words: “SPCX has the pieces to build an industry-leading intelligence per watt, per dollar, per second.”
What stands out in Morgan Stanley‘s thesis is the breakdown of where the value potential actually comes from. Roughly 50% of the near-term price target rests on opportunities tied to artificial intelligence. SpaceX itself puts its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion, of which $26.5 trillion is attributed to AI. Over the long term, the company expects more than 90% of its growth to come from AI, with its space projects serving as the backbone of that ambition.
This narrative repositioning — from space operator to AI infrastructure play — is critical to understanding why institutional investors remain buyers despite the correction. In the crypto world, this kind of thematic rotation is well understood: the projects that survive bear markets are those whose fundamental narrative holds up beyond short-term speculation.
A Long-Term Vision That Demands Patience — Just Like Crypto
As far back as 2020, Morgan Stanley was warning clients about the unique nature of space investments: return horizons potentially stretching over 50 years, technological milestones that would have seemed like science fiction in 1969, and an ecosystem of startups spanning satellite manufacturing, launch capabilities, space tourism, and even asteroid mining.
That time horizon resonates deeply with crypto investment culture. Bitcoin and Ethereum holders instinctively understand what it means to tune out short-term volatility and back a long-term thesis. SpaceX, with its dual exposure to space and AI, fits squarely into that logic of a high-conviction, long-duration asset.
That said, the 33% pullback from the peak is a reminder of one of the market’s immutable truths: even the best assets go through painful digestion phases. For patient investors, these are often precisely the moments where the most profitable positions are built — provided the fundamental thesis remains intact.
