A Standard Chartered analyst is pointing to a macro catalyst that the crypto market has largely overlooked. Long-end US Treasury buybacks are injecting liquidity into the financial system — and Bitcoin could be the primary beneficiary.
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Crypto Research at Standard Chartered, is directly connecting this monetary policy decision to an ambitious price target: $100,000 per BTC. It’s a scenario that warrants a closer look at the mechanics driving it.
As Bitcoin bounces back toward $69,000, macro signals are stacking up. Here’s why this move by the US Treasury could mark a decisive turning point for the current bull cycle.
US Treasury Buybacks: An Underestimated Liquidity Driver for Bitcoin
The US Treasury has recently doubled the volume of its long-end bond buybacks. In practical terms, Washington is repurchasing its own long-dated Treasuries on the secondary market, releasing cash into the financial system and compressing long-term bond yields.
For Geoff Kendrick, this mechanism is directly bullish for Bitcoin. When long-end yields fall, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC decreases. Institutional investors, who are constantly arbitraging between bonds and risk assets, naturally rebalance their portfolios toward assets with higher return potential.
This is no coincidental correlation: periods of global liquidity expansion have historically preceded Bitcoin’s major rallies. In 2020–2021, the massive post-Covid liquidity injection propelled BTC from $10,000 to $69,000. Kendrick suggests the current dynamic could replicate that pattern, albeit on a different scale.
Bitcoin at $69,000: A Technical Bounce That Confirms the Macro Thesis
On the price action side, Bitcoin is currently trading around $69,000 — a level that represents both a previous all-time high (November 2021) and a major resistance/support zone. The fact that BTC is consolidating above this threshold rather than testing it as resistance is a positive technical signal.
Kendrick identifies this bounce as a potential cycle bottom — in other words, the low point of the intermediate correction cycle before the next bullish impulse. Liquidity conditions are improving, market sentiment is stabilizing, and inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain sustained, with consistent net inflow volumes since their launch in January 2024.
The $100,000 per BTC target put forward by Standard Chartered represents an approximately 45% gain from current levels. This target is not an outlier: several institutional desks are converging on this zone as their end-of-cycle objective for 2024–2025, drawing on on-chain valuation models such as stock-to-flow and the MVRV ratio, as well as post-halving institutional demand projections.
What Investors Should Watch in the Weeks Ahead
Several indicators will either validate or invalidate this bullish scenario in the coming weeks. The top priority: the trajectory of the US 10-year Treasury yield. A continued decline in yields would reinforce Kendrick‘s thesis by improving global liquidity conditions.
On the crypto side, flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain a key barometer of institutional appetite. An acceleration in net inflows, combined with a reduction in available supply on exchanges as measured by CryptoQuant data, would constitute a strong structural buy signal. The Bitcoin Exchange Reserve ratio has in fact been trending lower for several months, a sign that holders are preferring to withdraw their BTC from platforms rather than sell.
Finally, the April 2024 halving continues to produce its delayed effects on supply. Historically, the 6 to 12 months following a halving correspond to the most pronounced acceleration phases of Bitcoin cycles. By targeting $100,000, Standard Chartered is positioning itself squarely within that time window.
