ONDO and BGB: The Heavy Hitters of the Unlock Calendar
This month’s token unlock calendar is particularly concentrated. The Real World Assets (RWA) protocol Ondo Finance (ONDO) alone is set to release approximately 1.9 billion tokens on January 19th. This represents a colossal value of over $840 million at the current price. These funds are primarily allocated to founders, the team, and private investors, which always raises concerns about a massive profit-taking event (dump) on the spot market.
Meanwhile, the Bitget Token (BGB) is not far behind. On January 26th, nearly 140 million tokens (approximately $500 million) will be unlocked. A significant portion of this allocation is reserved for the team and branding. Historically, this type of cliff unlock (sudden release) tests the liquidity of order books. If demand isn’t there to absorb this supply surplus, a technical retracement seems inevitable for these altcoins.
TRUMP and HYPE: Between Volatility and Resilience
Attention is also focused on the Official Trump (TRUMP) token. On January 18th, the project will release 50 million tokens, valued at approximately $270 million, allocated to founders. In the memecoin sector, where speculation reigns supreme, such an influx of liquidity could exacerbate volatility. Traders will closely monitor whether historical holders choose to HODL or liquidate their positions, which could trigger a cascade of liquidations.
Conversely, Hyperliquid (HYPE) is showing a surprising dynamic. Despite the announcement of an unlock of 12.4 million tokens ($327 million) for core contributors, HYPE’s price is showing signs of strength, even posting a recent increase. This suggests that the market may have already priced in the event or that confidence in DeFi on Hyperliquid remains intact. This is a textbook case where the bullish narrative could outweigh the bearish mechanics of token inflation.
Should You Short the Market or Accumulate Now?
With $5.5 billion in potential selling pressure, caution is advised for leveraged traders. These events often create a “sell the news” phenomenon, but Bitcoin appears ready to break out of its range phase and target $100,000 in the coming weeks.
In short, the biggest selling pressure has already passed and the impact should already be “priced in.” Volatility should therefore only be short-term.
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