Rapidly Accelerating Crypto Adoption
The Gemini 2025 report confirms that the adoption of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin is following a trajectory similar to that of the Internet in the 1990s. Europe stands out as the driving force behind this growth, with France and the UK leading the way.
In France, 21% of the population owns cryptocurrencies in 2025, up from 18% in 2024. In the UK, this figure stands at 24%, compared to 18% the previous year. Singapore maintains its global leadership with 28% of holders. In the United States, adoption is slightly increasing, moving from 21% to 22%.
A noteworthy point is the increasing trust in cryptos. In the US, 23% of non-holders say that a strategic reserve of Bitcoin by the government would enhance their interest in the sector.
In France, investors are particularly bold: 67% own memecoins, surpassing Singapore (59%) and the US (55%). This risk appetite contrasts with the traditionally cautious image associated with the French.
Diversification of assets also drives this adoption: 39% of respondents invest in cryptos to hedge against inflation, compared to 32% in 2024. These figures demonstrate a gradual integration of cryptocurrencies into daily life despite an unstable geopolitical backdrop.
Trump’s Reversal: A Threat to Bitcoin
Elected on promises of debt reduction and global peace, Donald Trump surprised with a radical strategic reversal. By April 2025, financial measures worsened the American deficit, contradicting campaign commitments.
But it is on the geopolitical front that the change is most striking. Far from his 2024 pacifist rhetoric, which promised to resolve the Ukrainian conflict within 24 hours, Trump authorized strikes against Iran, reigniting tensions in the Middle East.
This reversal jeopardizes the bullish prospects of the crypto markets. Geopolitical instability, coupled with the threat of military escalation, weighs on risky assets, including Bitcoin. In this context, three scenarios emerge, each with distinct implications for cryptocurrencies.
Three Scenarios for Crypto Markets
- Escalation towards a global conflict
The least likely but most dramatic scenario would be an escalation towards a global conflict. A US ground intervention in Iran, which controls the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil, 25% of liquefied gas), could trigger a response from China and Russia, strategic allies of Tehran. Such a conflict would lead to a collapse of financial markets, rendering technical analyses obsolete. Cryptocurrencies, often seen as safe havens, could paradoxically suffer from a flight to more traditional assets. - Global economic recession
More plausible, a recession could result from Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to new strikes or sanctions. This would lead to a surge in oil prices (Brent above $110), increased inflation, and tighter monetary policies. Technically, a weekly Bitcoin close below $100,000 would signal this bearish scenario. Traders will need to monitor volumes to distinguish technical rebounds from true trend reversals. - Diplomatic resolution and recovery
The most optimistic scenario envisions de-escalation after US targeted strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites. By neutralizing the nuclear threat, the US could pave the way for a regional agreement involving Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. A drop in Brent and a strong Bitcoin recovery would mark this return to stability, with a positive impact on global markets.
Brent Oil: A Compass for Crypto Traders and Bitcoin
In this climate of uncertainty, the price of Brent oil becomes an indispensable indicator. Its fluctuations often precede those of cryptocurrencies, providing an early signal of geopolitical risks.
Traders are encouraged to incorporate Brent into their analysis, using alerts or charts on TradingView, to anticipate market movements. For instance, Brent surpassing $110 would signal a recession risk, while stabilization would suggest a diplomatic stance.
To navigate this volatility, it is crucial to distinguish day trading strategies, which capitalize on short-term fluctuations, from medium to long-term spot positions aiming for sustainable rebounds. In a bearish market, rigorous risk management and volume analysis are essential. The coming weeks will be crucial for crypto markets. Despite geopolitical tensions, the fundamentals of adoption remain strong, as shown in the Gemini report.
Close monitoring of Brent, coupled with thorough technical analysis, will enable traders to adapt to these uncertainties. Cryptocurrencies, driven by growing adoption, could emerge as a resilience factor in the medium term.
