TRUMP token unlock: Will 6.3M tokens trigger a price crash?

6.3M TRUMP tokens are unlocking! Will this trigger a price crash? Get expert analysis, potential retracement predictions, and market insights.

Written by Simon Dumoulin

Translated on February 17, 2026 at 06:42 by Simon Dumoulin

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Supply Shock on Official Trump: 2.72% Released Abruptly

The crypto market, particularly the memecoin sector, remains ultra-sensitive to supply and demand dynamics. Today, the Official Trump (TRUMP) token faces a major event: the unlock of 6.33 million tokens, representing approximately 2.72% of the circulating supply according to on-chain data. Such a liquidity injection is never trivial. Without an immediate increase in demand, this new supply risks creating significant dilutive pressure on the price.

Historically, unlock events act as powerful volatility catalysts. The unlocked tokens, often allocated to teams, advisors, or early investors, frequently end up on the secondary market, intensifying selling pressure. Anticipating this scenario, some holders prefer to sell ahead of time, triggering a self-fulfilling prophecy mechanism that accelerates the correction.

The numbers confirm this tension: trading volume has surged 65% in 24 hours, reaching nearly $155 million. This activity spike suggests that whales and speculators are already adjusting their positions. The market is clearly preparing to absorb or suffer from this supply surplus.

TRUMP token Spot Inflow/Outflow chart showing capital inflows and outflows on exchanges. Bars illustrate daily flow variations, highlighting peaks of successive inflows and outflows, reflecting high activity and increased investor volatility. Source: CoinGlass. — Source: CoinGlass

Fragile Technical Structure: Toward a 12% Correction?

From a technical analysis perspective, the current configuration is delicate. TRUMP is trading around $3.48, trapped in a parallel channel for several sessions. The repeated failure below the $3.62 resistance, corresponding to the channel’s high, constitutes a concerning bearish signal. The buyers’ inability to regain control weakens the short-term structure.

If the bulls fail to absorb the supply from the unlock, a retracement toward the channel’s bottom becomes likely. Technically, this would imply a correction of approximately 12%, with a potential return to the $3.05 – $3.10 zone, identified as key support. Momentum indicators already show exhaustion, reinforcing the risk of a mechanical bearish move.

However, the scenario is not set in stone. A confirmed break above $3.65 with volume would invalidate the bearish thesis and could trigger a short squeeze, propelling the token toward new local highs. Traders are now monitoring two critical levels: a close below $3.40 would validate selling pressure, while a bullish breakout would reignite speculation. In this highly volatile environment, the balance between excess supply and speculative demand will be decisive.

TradingView chart of TRUMP/USDT in 4H timeframe showing a downtrend followed by consolidation in a parallel channel. The price hovers around $3.46, below a horizontal resistance zone near $3.60, with support identified around $3.05-$3.10. A projection indicates a possible retracement of approximately -12% towards the bottom of the channel. The ADX (14) indicator displays a value around 24, signaling a moderate to weak trend.

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Simon Dumoulin

Passionate about cryptocurrencies since 2019, I cover the latest news through clear and accessible articles. My goal is to make crypto understandable for everyone, with reliable and well-researched content.

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