In just a few weeks, UNI has tripled in value, climbing from around $3 to nearly $9. That kind of performance puts Uniswap among the most dynamic altcoins on the market right now.

But behind this impressive price action, on-chain data tells a more nuanced story. Warning signals are mounting on the sell side, and the question of whether this rally is losing momentum is now being asked in earnest.

Is the $10 level still within reach, or is the market beginning to turn? Here is a breakdown of the key metrics.

Exploding Netflows: The Signal That Has Traders on Edge

Analyst MorenoDV_ on CryptoQuant has highlighted one particularly closely watched indicator: UNI netflows on Binance. These flows, which measure the difference between deposits and withdrawals on the exchange, have surged by nearly 700% in just a few days. A massive influx of tokens onto a centralized platform is traditionally interpreted as a signal of imminent selling — holders looking to liquidate their positions near the top.

This type of behavior tends to emerge when an asset approaches a major resistance zone. At $9, UNI is running into a technical level that previously acted as support during the 2021 bull run. A successful reclaim of that level as support would be a strong bullish signal — but for now, selling pressure at that zone remains significant.

Sell-side liquidity is therefore building at precisely the moment when bullish momentum is still present. This kind of setup — strong momentum paired with rising sell-side liquidity — is characteristic of a rally that is becoming “overcrowded”, to use institutional trading terminology. The risk of a sharp reversal grows as long positions accumulate without sufficient buying counterpart to absorb them.

Momentum Still Present, But Reversal Conditions Are Forming

Despite these warning signs, UNI‘s momentum remains technically positive. The token has broken through several key resistance levels in sequence, confirming a structure of higher highs and lower lows on the daily chart. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have both been reclaimed to the upside, and volume continues to support the price advance — an essential criterion for validating a genuine breakout.

On the market sentiment side, open interest in UNI futures has also increased, a sign that speculative traders are taking directional positions. But this accumulation of longs can quickly become fuel for a cascade of liquidations if the price were to drop below a key level — most notably the $7.50 zone, identified as an intermediate support.

To reach $10, UNI will need to absorb the current selling pressure and consolidate above $9. A fundamental catalyst — such as a major governance announcement or a protocol update tied to Uniswap v4 — could provide the necessary push. Without one, the rally risks stalling against increasingly dense resistance, in a broader market environment that itself remains under pressure, as demonstrated by the recent UNI surge following the SEC’s openness toward regulated AMMs.