The crypto market is holding its breath: after weeks of dormancy, altcoins are showing signs of awakening. Historically, year-end typically sees a surge in interest for secondary assets, usually following a return of Bitcoin dominance. However, this time, on-chain and technical indicators are pointing towards a more explosive scenario: an imminent Altcoin Season could be on the horizon as early as November.
The OTHERS/BTC chart measures the market capitalization of all alternative cryptocurrencies outside the top 10 relative to Bitcoin. It tells an interesting story. Altcoin Vector, an account renowned for institutional-level analysis at Swissblock, notes that this ratio fell in October, dropping from over 0.14 in September to below 0.12. This decline demonstrates the severity of the sell-off that hit altcoins in recent weeks.
However, the situation is evolving. The chart is now entering a stabilization phase, with prices fluctuating within a defined range without establishing new lows. This consolidation represents a first positive signal. WIF/USD perfectly illustrates this dynamic, with its price action closely aligning with the general trend of the altcoin market.
Altcoin Vector remains cautious in their forecasts. The analyst only anticipates short-term relief rallies for November. They don’t foresee a true altcoin season characterized by powerful and sustained bullish movements. “If the stabilization zone holds as support, we could see relief rallies that help release downward pressure,” they specify. This measured approach contrasts with the optimism displayed by other market experts.
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Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund and a recognized macroeconomic analyst, adopts a more bullish perspective. Analyzing the same OTHERS/BTC chart, he identifies striking parallels with major historical periods. According to van de Poppe, altcoins are currently trading at undervaluation levels comparable to the lows of Q4 2016 and Q1 2020.
These two periods preceded spectacular bull runs. In 2017, the market experienced an explosive altcoin season where Ethereum and other projects multiplied their value by several hundred. The 2020-2021 cycle also generated massive gains after the pandemic. Van de Poppe considers this chart one of the most valuable for assessing current market timing.
Analyst Javon Marks provides an additional technical perspective by examining the RSI of the “Others Dominance” chart. For the first time in crypto market history, OTHERS.D has entered an extremely oversold zone, reaching the deepest level ever recorded on the monthly RSI. This extreme situation suggests that selling pressure may be exhausted, paving the way for a rebound or trend reversal. Ted, an influential crypto analyst, shares this optimism by predicting a “beautiful bull market” ahead.
Historically, altcoin seasons often begin around November, which reinforces the hypothesis of favorable timing. However, the current context presents notable differences compared to past cycles. The altcoin season index remains below 50, and fear persists despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. This disconnect between positive technical signals and negative market sentiment creates an ambiguous situation that divides the analyst community.
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