A Bull Trap Scenario Feared for Ethereum
While the crypto community eagerly awaits the next post-halving bull run, not all predictions are optimistic for the prince of altcoins. Ben Cowen, known for his technical analysis based on rigorous mathematical models, has shared a decidedly bearish perspective on the medium-term future of Ethereum.
According to the analyst, if Ethereum (ETH) manages to climb back toward its current ATH by 2026, investors should not declare victory too soon. Cowen suggests this price action would not signal a massive breakout, but rather a classic bull trap. In this scenario, the price would rise enough to attract retail liquidity (the infamous FOMO), before suffering a violent correction, leaving late buyers with losing positions.
A Divergence from Previous Cycles
Market cycle history has accustomed us to seeing Ethereum outperform Bitcoin during euphoric phases. However, the current market structure shows signs of weakness. ETH’s inability to maintain its strength against BTC worries many observers. Cowen emphasizes that without a fundamental change in the dynamics of the ETH/BTC pair, a sustainable rally toward new highs appears compromised.
For the analyst, the market could enter a prolonged range phase or diminishing returns, where the peaks of each cycle become increasingly difficult to breach. This type of structure is typical of mature assets, but contradicts the hyper-growth thesis often associated with cryptocurrencies.
Technical Indicators Under Watch
Technically, Ben Cowen is monitoring several key resistance levels that could block Ether’s ascent. If the price fails to transform these zones into solid support, the risk of rejection is high. The analyst warns against blind optimism:
“If Ether manages to reclaim its all-time high in 2026, it may only be a bull trap.”
This statement comes as the Ethereum network continues to develop technically but struggles to reflect these advances in its price against Bitcoin’s overwhelming dominance. Investors must therefore remain vigilant in the face of volatility and not rule out a scenario of deep retracement after an attempt at the peak.
Technical Analysis and Key Indicators
The range is even more explicit with the order blocks on a two-week timeframe. Currently at the critical threshold of its range midpoint, Ethereum must hold these levels, otherwise it’s a return to $1,700 minimum.
Conversely, a rebound to $3,800 minimum is in the cards for ETH if this range midpoint holds firm. Moreover, ETH’s 2025 annual candle is typical of a neutral market with wicks on each side. For now, patience is required.
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