Cardano (ADA) keeps disappointing amid volatility, but analysts suggest this correction phase could be crucial before a significant bullish rally. A drop below $0.45 could solidify the market structure, attract fresh buyers, and potentially set the stage for ADA to surge in the medium term.
On-chain data from Santiment highlights a concerning phenomenon: a massive wave of capitulation affecting both whales and retail investors alike. This widespread selling pressure reflects an exacerbated climate of fear across the entire crypto market. CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index displayed a score of approximately 31/100 at the time of analysis, confirming this dominant bearish sentiment. This is also the case for Cardano.
The reopening of the US government after a 40-day shutdown has certainly calmed traditional markets, but the effects on the crypto sector remain limited. Capital flows continue to massively favor artificial intelligence-related stocks, draining liquidity that could normally flow into altcoins like Cardano. This sector rotation partially explains ADA’s persistent weakness despite a slightly improved macroeconomic context.
Nevertheless, some potentially bullish catalysts are emerging on the horizon. The Federal Reserve’s anticipated quantitative easing for next month, combined with rising global reserves, could reverse the trend. But for now, ADA’s price action suggests that an additional purge toward $0.45 remains the most likely short-term scenario.
Technical analysis reveals a fascinating fractal pattern: Cardano’s current price behavior almost identically reproduces its 2020-2021 bull cycle. This structural repetition is not coincidental and offers valuable clues about the altcoin’s future trajectory.
On the weekly timeframe, the 2021 parabolic run began after ADA retested a multi-year support-resistance level established during previous bear markets. This retest allowed sufficient liquidity accumulation and convinced the last sellers to exit before the explosive rally that followed. The current cycle appears to follow exactly the same path, but with an additional step: passing through $0.45 to clean out speculative positions and establish a solid foundation.
This consolidation around $0.45 would serve as a strategic accumulation zone before the rebound toward $0.70. Institutional players and smart money typically wait for these maximum capitulation zones to position themselves aggressively. Once this level is reached and validated as new support, the trajectory toward $0.70 and beyond would become technically credible.
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