The crypto market holds its breath as Bitcoin (BTC) tests the critical $91,000 zone amid anticipation of tomorrow's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. With recession fears and rate cut hopes, volatility is set to surge for Ethereum, Solana, and the market at large.
All eyes from crypto investors are fixed on the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will release tomorrow, Friday, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures for December. This report is far more than a simple statistic: it’s the barometer that will dictate the next move from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Economists are forecasting a slowdown in the labor market, with approximately 73,000 job additions expected, up from 64,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is projected to decline slightly to 4.5%. If these numbers are confirmed, they could validate the scenario of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy.
For crypto traders, the equation is simple but risky: a cooling labor market is generally bullish for risk assets, as it pushes the Fed toward loosening its monetary policy. Conversely, figures that are too robust could strengthen the dollar and trigger an immediate pullback on Bitcoin and major altcoins.
The crypto market has shown signs of nervousness over the past 24 hours. After flirting with $94,000 earlier this week, Bitcoin is undergoing a classic retracement, currently trading around $91,000. Traders are anxiously monitoring the support at $90,000: a downward break could trigger a massive liquidation of long positions and a retreat toward $87,000.
On the altcoin front, the situation is equally tense:
However, the medium-term context remains favorable. The JOLTS data released earlier this week, showing a decline in job openings to 7.1 million (below expectations), has already sent a positive signal. Institutional investors appear to be taking advantage of this dip to accumulate, as evidenced by recent movements in Bitcoin ETFs and new ETF applications for Solana filed by giants like Morgan Stanley.
History has often shown us: NFP release days are synonymous with roller coasters. It’s not uncommon to see violent wicks in both directions within minutes of the announcement, trapping overly aggressive traders.
If the report disappoints (employment figures weaker than expected), the narrative of a Fed rate cut will take over, potentially propelling Bitcoin toward $100,000. Conversely, an upside surprise could dampen short-term hopes and send BTC back to test its lower supports around $88,000.
But this isn’t the only event during this packed January for the Fed. Indeed, the CPI is scheduled for the 13th, the PPI for the 14th, FOMC rate announcements for the 28th, and finally Trump’s announcement to name the new Fed Chair for the 31st. It’s therefore a loaded month that could change everything for the crypto market.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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