XRP just posted a sharp 6% rally in 24 hours, driven by weaker-than-expected US macroeconomic data. The broader crypto market is recovering, but it is Ripple‘s altcoin that is commanding the most attention from traders.
Behind this move lies a well-known dynamic: growing anticipation of a Federal Reserve pivot. And with it, the return of a target that seemed out of reach just a few weeks ago — $10 per XRP.
How far can this rally go, and what are the key levels to watch before buying into the move?
A Clear Macro Catalyst: The Fed Sends a Dovish Signal
This week’s US labor market data came in below expectations. Weekly jobless claims printed at 206,000 versus the 205,000 forecast, while ADP private payrolls collapsed to just 38,000 against an anticipated 47,000. This double miss mechanically strengthens expectations for a Fed rate cut.
Risk assets responded immediately. XRP, along with the rest of the crypto market, absorbed that buying flow: 24-hour trading volume climbed to around $5.5 billion, a level that signals genuine market participation — not simply a liquidity squeeze on a thin order book. XRP’s market capitalization has stabilized at around $90.9 billion, repositioning it firmly among the sector’s large-cap assets.
This macro backdrop is far from trivial. The correlation between rate expectations and large-cap altcoins has intensified since 2024, and XRP is one of the most sensitive barometers of that relationship. Every dovish signal from the Fed acts as a multiplier on assets that are already in bullish momentum.
Technical Analysis: XRP Faces a Decisive Descending Triangle
On the chart, XRP has been trading within a descending triangle since its August peak at $1.70. The recent bounce to $1.45 is resting on the triangle’s lower support, but the descending resistance has not yet been broken — and that is the critical level to watch.
Key levels to keep on your radar:
- Major support: $1.35–$1.38 (high-volume historical zone)
- 200-day EMA: $1.33–$1.35, the last line of defense before a deeper correction
- Intermediate resistance: $1.55, then $1.60–$1.90 on a confirmed breakout
- Danger zone: a slip below $1.30 would open the door to a significant correction
The short-term bullish scenario requires XRP to hold above $1.34 and break through the triangle’s descending resistance. Without that signal, the market risks consolidating between $1.38 and $1.52 while waiting for the next macro catalysts — most notably the upcoming US employment data.
The $10 Target: Powerful Narrative, Demanding Math
The renewed talk around $10 per XRP rests on two pillars: speculation surrounding a spot XRP ETF and institutional momentum that has quietly been building over recent weeks. These institutional flows, while still difficult to quantify precisely, provide a far more solid foundation for the bull case than retail sentiment alone.
But the math remains unforgiving. At a $90 billion market cap, doubling XRP‘s price requires an equivalent amount of fresh capital to flow into the asset. That kind of move is built over months, not across a handful of euphoric trading sessions. The 70% rally from $1 to $1.70 recorded in August proved that XRP is capable of violent moves — but the 20% correction that followed is a reminder that every excess eventually gets priced in.
The $10 target therefore remains a long-term scenario, contingent on a confluence of factors: regulatory clarity, accelerated institutional adoption, and a supportive macro environment. For now, traders have their eyes firmly fixed on $1.60 as the first real credibility test for the current rally.
