XRP delivered one of its strongest quarters of the year, posting gains of over 45%, driven by growing institutional demand through US spot ETFs. Yet the token entered October trading around $1.50, unable to sustain a break above the $1.70 zone.
Cumulative inflows into XRP ETFs are now approaching $1.8 billion, including $307.9 million in the third quarter alone. A performance that should have pushed the price higher — but the reality of the market is more nuanced. Available supply continues to absorb every wave of buying, leaving bulls stuck at a standstill.
Between persistent selling pressure, a surge of XRP flowing onto exchanges, and key technical levels in play, here is what the data really reveals about where XRP stands.
$307M in ETF Inflows, but Sellers Hold Their Ground
US spot XRP ETFs recorded $307.9 million in net inflows during Q3, bringing cumulative inflows to nearly $1.8 billion. These figures reflect genuine institutional interest — but they have not translated into a new price plateau. ETF demand is absorbing supply without exceeding it, keeping the price in equilibrium rather than triggering a breakout.
The final two days of September actually saw zero net flows into XRP ETFs, according to CoinGlass data. A one-off signal, perhaps — but a reminder that marginal demand can shift quickly. When institutional buyers pause, even briefly, the price loses its primary bullish catalyst.
At the same time, CryptoQuant reports that altcoin transfers to exchanges reached their highest level since October 2025 on a weekly basis. This movement is described as broad and diffuse — not concentrated among a handful of whales — suggesting widespread profit-taking following a quarter that returned +45%. These deposits are not confirmed sells, but they mechanically increase the available selling liquidity in the market.
$1.54 and $1.70: The Two Technical Barriers XRP Must Break
Technical analysis identifies $1.54 as the first bullish confirmation level. A clean hourly close above this level would theoretically open the door toward $1.70, representing a potential upside of around 10%. However, XRP has already failed on multiple occasions to hold advances beyond $1.55 toward the end of the quarter, and every attempt to push past $1.60 in late September was rejected.
The truly decisive resistance remains the late-August swing high at $1.70. A sustained break above this level would signal that demand is finally absorbing enough supply to shift market structure — rather than producing just another short-lived rally. Without that breakout, every bounce remains suspect and vulnerable to a pullback toward support.
On the downside, the floor to watch sits in the $1.48–$1.50 zone, where XRP began the month of October. A failure to hold this support following another rejection at resistance would put the recent base under pressure and could trigger a liquidation of long positions in the derivatives market. Futures positioning and funding rates remain variables to factor into the equation, even if they do not on their own identify the source of spot selling pressure.
