Is Bitcoin Still the Gatekeeper of the Altseason?
According to Benjamin Cowen, a respected on-chain analyst, the current market phase represents only a “prologue” before the real expansion of altseason. His thesis rests on two essential conditions: Ethereum (ETH) must break through and crucially maintain the $5,000 threshold as new support. This dynamic would necessarily imply that Bitcoin (BTC) also establishes a new all-time high (ATH).
Cowen reminds us that during each previous bull cycle, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) typically increases when BTC climbs toward new highs. It’s only after this dominance peak that capital truly begins to flow massively toward altcoins.
“The only way to get an ALT season is for BTC.D to increase first when BTC reaches new highs,” the analyst emphasizes.
Analyst AG nuances this view, however, by pointing out that the Bitcoin dominance peak doesn’t necessarily coincide with its price peak. Historically, BTC.D tends to drop by about 30% from its highest point once Bitcoin reaches its ATH. According to AG, the cycle peak could already be reached around 65% dominance by June 2025, which would leave the door open for a massive rotation toward altcoins, even if Bitcoin consolidates.
Currently, BTC.D approaches 59%, while the Altcoin Season Index has dropped below 75 points. These indicators confirm that altcoins are significantly underperforming and fuel fears of a significant delay in the altseason. Some analysts even suggest that the true “alt season” is currently happening not in crypto tokens, but in stocks of publicly traded crypto companies.
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ETH/BTC Testing a Historic Support Level
CryptoBullet, an analyst known for his market cycle studies, directly challenges Cowen’s thesis. He cites historical data showing that Ethereum advanced by +88% in December 2017 and +79% in April 2021, shortly after Bitcoin reached its peak. These performances prove that ETH can generate powerful market momentum without waiting for new BTC growth.
Analyst Ted takes a more cautious position but identifies several notable bullish signals. The ETH/BTC ratio is currently testing the 0.032-0.034 support zone, a level that has historically triggered powerful rebounds during previous cycles. Maintaining this support could signal the beginning of a trend reversal favorable to altcoins.
Ted also emphasizes that the total market capitalization of altcoins (excluding stablecoins) remains 20% below its all-time high. This lag suggests significant catch-up potential exists, provided BTC and ETH show sustained bullish momentum. Moreover, signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding a potential end to quantitative tightening (QT) could create a favorable liquidity environment for risk assets, particularly altcoins.
FANG, another influential voice in the crypto community, displays more marked optimism. He notes that this is the first bullish trend in the ETH/BTC ratio in four years and insists that such a technical pattern cannot be ignored. According to him, seeing Ethereum above $5,000 is only a matter of time.
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