A Mid-Cycle Correction for Bitcoin, Not a Bear Market
On-chain data reveals that nearly 29% of Bitcoin ‘s circulating supply is currently held at a loss. In other words, these coins were purchased at prices higher than the current market value. At first glance, this figure may seem concerning. However, this is exactly the same signal that manifested before the rallies of 2017, 2021, and 2024.
Perera describes this phenomenon as a “mid-cycle reset.” Historically, after each similar correction, Bitcoin has followed with gains between 150% and 400% over the subsequent six months. This pattern repeats: recent investors panic and sell, while long-term holders quietly accumulate at bargain prices.
The other commonly cited figure—more than 97% of wallets in profit—actually masks an unequal distribution. The majority of these wallets belong to early adopters who purchased BTC well below $10,000. Meanwhile, newcomers are predominantly underwater. This configuration typically precedes an accumulation phase before the next leg up.
The $6 Trillion Target: A Monetary Shift Underway
Perera’s reasoning is based on macroeconomic analysis. The global financial system contains more than $100 trillion of fiat money in circulation (M2 aggregate). A growing portion of this money is seeking refuge in rare and non-inflationary assets like Bitcoin.
According to the analyst, this capital movement could propel BTC’s market cap toward $6 trillion in the coming years. This would imply a Bitcoin price well exceeding $300,000, or even higher. This scenario isn’t pure speculation: Institutional inflows via Bitcoin ETFs have already surpassed $149 billion, while the supply of stablecoins—considered waiting liquidity—has increased by $50 billion since July.
Whales and institutions are accumulating while retail investors panic. Long-term holders now control approximately 70% of the circulating supply and show no signs of distribution. This is a major bullish signal that the market is still ignoring.
Trade BTC like a pro with this trading bot !
The Leverage Flush for Bitcoin: A Beneficial Reset
Recent volatility has triggered the liquidation of more than $19 billion in leveraged positions, causing open interest to drop by 42%. Funding rates have fallen near zero, indicating that the overheated derivatives market has completely cooled off.
This flush is crucial. It eliminates forced sellers—those overleveraged traders whose liquidations create downward cascades. Now, the market is cleansed, sterilized, and ready for an organic recovery. Perera estimates that the next 180 days could mark the beginning of a new major bull run.
The psychological support of $100,000, though briefly broken, was quickly reclaimed. This type of fakeout liquidates weak positions before a genuine upward movement. Experienced traders recognize this as a classic bear trap structure.
On the same topic:
