The traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle is now being challenged by Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who believes global monetary policy outweighs it. Interest rates, liquidity injections, and institutional investors now shape BTC’s market dynamics. Is the halving cycle now a thing of the past? Find out more.
Hayes argues that every Bitcoin bull run coincides with phases of quantitative easing and abundant liquidity in traditional markets. The previous bullish cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021 all occurred in environments of low interest rates and massive monetary expansion. The halving, the programmed event that cuts miners’ rewards in half every four years, was reportedly just a narrative catalyst rather than a true fundamental driver.
The real change lies in the growing correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets. When the Fed tightens its monetary policy and raises rates, capital flows dry up in both tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, when liquidity taps open, Bitcoin benefits from the general rally of risk assets.
On-chain data confirms this evolution. The dominance of institutional investors in trading volumes and BTC holdings through ETFs is profoundly changing the market structure. These players don’t follow a calendar based on halvings but react to macroeconomic signals: inflation, key interest rates, fiscal policy.
While the Bitcoin cycle is no longer as predictable as before, one thing remains certain: global liquidity still determines major trends. Arthur Hayes believes that upcoming monetary easing periods could propel BTC to new heights—regardless of the halving. To capitalize on this dynamic, you can easily buy Bitcoin on Bitget, with a bonus included.
The increasing sophistication of the crypto market makes historical patterns less and less reliable. Hayes observes that cycles are becoming increasingly asymmetric and unpredictable in terms of timing. The latest halving in April 2024 didn’t trigger the explosive rally expected according to the traditional calendar, which supports his thesis.
Geopolitical factors also play a decisive role that models based solely on the halving cannot capture. Tensions between major powers, national regulations on cryptocurrencies, and fiscal policies directly impact market sentiment and capital flows. This increasing complexity fragments the idea of a mechanical and predictable cycle.
Hayes therefore encourages investors to abandon the simplistic vision of “four years and guaranteed profit.” Instead, he recommends carefully monitoring macroeconomic indicators: central bank balance sheets, yield curves, credit spreads, and stock market momentum. This more nuanced approach requires a deeper understanding of global monetary dynamics, but it better reflects the reality of Bitcoin in 2025.
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