Bitcoin is navigating a turbulent stretch, but the big hands aren’t folding. With the price hovering around $63,000 — roughly 50% below its all-time high — institutional analysts are displaying a surprising degree of conviction. The store of value thesis, far from being buried, appears more structurally grounded than ever, backed by players who simply aren’t selling.
Behind the pullback, several forces are competing: rotation into AI, corporate treasury liquidations, and regulatory uncertainty. But on-chain data tells a different story — one of a long-term holder base that continues to hold firm.
A 50% Pullback That Isn’t Convincing Institutions to Sell
Bitcoin hit a two-month low on June 5, weighed down by a confluence of headwinds: net outflows from spot ETFs, macroeconomic uncertainty, and a massive capital rotation into artificial intelligence-linked tech stocks. Since its ATH of $126,279 reached in October 2025, the correction has exceeded 50% — a level that, historically, triggers waves of capitulation among retail investors.
And that’s exactly what’s happening: retail is pulling back, and the headlines are leaning into fear. But on institutional trading desks, the narrative is radically different. In a report published Monday, analysts at Bernstein stated that Bitcoin’s long-term thesis as a store of value remains intact, despite a marked slowdown in inflows into spot ETFs and corporate treasuries — $12 billion since the start of 2026, compared to $60 billion across all of 2025.
Notably, Bernstein clarifies that the selling pressure is coming primarily from corporate treasuries unwinding their positions, not from spot ETFs, which have recorded only $2.6 billion in net outflows since January. That’s a critical distinction when it comes to reading current market sentiment.
61% of Supply Unmoved for Over a Year: The On-Chain Signal That Changes Everything
Beyond ETF flows, it’s the on-chain data that’s drawing the most attention. According to Bernstein, 61% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved in over a year. This figure, widely tracked by analysts as a measure of holder conviction, suggests that a broad base of long-term holders is refusing to sell at current prices — even under pressure.
The firm is maintaining its price target of $150,000 for 2026, underpinned by a structural shift in the investor base: wealth management platforms, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds. Unlike retail participants, these players operate on long investment horizons and don’t react to short-term corrections. Bernstein had already described early 2026 as the period with the “weakest bear case in Bitcoin’s history“.
That said, several headwinds continue to weigh on near-term price action. The rotation into AI is accelerating, with hundreds of billions being redirected toward hyperscalers and large-cap tech. SpaceX’s IPO, scheduled for June 12 on the Nasdaq at a target valuation of between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, is also capturing a significant share of retail attention and liquidity. Meanwhile, Strategy‘s Bitcoin sales are adding further pressure on the spot market.
The CLARITY Act: A Regulatory Catalyst to Watch
On the US legislative front, the CLARITY Act — a digital asset market structure bill that would split regulatory authority between the SEC and the CFTC — cleared a key milestone in May, passing the Senate Banking Committee with a 15 to 9 vote. The House of Representatives had already passed it last July with a comfortable majority of 294 votes to 134.
Its final passage could lift years of regulatory uncertainty that continues to hold back large-scale institutional allocations. For asset managers waiting on a clear legal framework before gaining Bitcoin exposure, this bill represents a powerful signal. Should the Senate pass the CLARITY Act in its current form, the unlocking of institutional capital could become the next major bullish catalyst for the market.
In the meantime, Bitcoin is consolidating within a critical support zone. Price action remains under pressure, but on-chain fundamentals and institutional positioning paint a far more nuanced picture than the price alone would suggest.
