A Rally Under High Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Tension
Bitcoin (BTC) crossed the $81,000 mark this weekend, reviving hopes of a massive breakout toward $90,000. According to Fibonacci projections, the next technical target sits at $83,800. However, traders are adopting a cautious stance, fearing a bearish Monday in the stock markets in the short term amid an explosive economic calendar.
Indeed, Donald Trump sent a chill through the markets by accusing Iran of “47 years of deception,” pointing fingers at past fund transfers made by the Obama administration. Although no new sanctions have been announced, this resurgence of geopolitical tension is pushing investors to secure their positions.
As crypto analyst Trader Killa pointed out: “Never trust a weekend pump on Bitcoin.” This warning resonates strongly as institutional volumes prepare to take over as soon as traditional markets open.
This morning, Bitcoin is displaying extreme volatility after touching $82k before plunging back to $80,700 at the time of writing. The S&P 500 dropped by 0.72% in premarket trading today, slipping back below $1,400 with a current price of $1,385.
Inflation and Powell’s Farewell: Catalysts for the Next Move?
Beyond geopolitics, the US economy will dictate the trend this week. All eyes are on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected on Tuesday, followed by the PPI on Wednesday. Cooler than expected inflation figures could fuel risk appetite and propel BTC toward a new rally.
Conversely, sticky inflation would push back hopes of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), risking a severe retracement across the entire crypto and stock market. Every data release could flip traders’ bets in a matter of minutes.
Finally, Friday will mark Jerome Powell’s very last day as Fed Chair. This historic transition adds an extra layer of uncertainty, as markets inherently despise the unknown.
Can Bitcoin (BTC) Smash the $83,400 Resistance This Week?
Technically, Bitcoin is at a crossroads. In addition to facing a bearish 6 hour order block up to $82,900, Bitcoin has printed its first daily CVD divergences since the summer of 2025. Bearish RSI divergences are also present. Lastly, BTC is sitting at its FBB median band at $81,150. The price must hold above this level on the weekly close to confirm that buyers are still in control.
If buyers manage to break this glass ceiling, the path to $83,400 will be wide open, potentially unlocking the door to an even more spectacular surge. On the other hand, a failure in the face of macroeconomic data could send the price back to test its key supports around $78,900 or $76,000.
On the liquidations side, the largest HTF cluster is located to the upside at $92,700. Meanwhile, on lower timeframes, the clusters are predominantly to the downside with a significant cluster at $77,300. The only short term upside cluster sits at $83,000.
As whales accumulate and millions of dollars in liquidations threaten long positions, the question remains: are you ready for the storm brewing in the crypto market this week?
Caution is advised, as Bitcoin will experience high volatility and every pump or dump could reverse quickly. If BTC breaks $73,000, the trend turns bullish. If BTC drops below $80,000, the trend flips back to bearish in the short term.
Sources:
- TradingView
- Killa on X
- BeInCrypto
- MMT
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